{"slug": "the-macroeconomic-effect-of-ai-through-software-engineering", "title": "The Macroeconomic Effect of AI through software engineering", "summary": "A new NBER working paper estimates that from November 2022 to December 2025, AI raised the market's expected present value of software engineering productivity by the equivalent of a permanent 32.6% productivity increase, with a corresponding effect on the level of GDP of 3.6% in the baseline and 6.5% when higher software engineering productivity also raises R&D productivity. The paper measures each firm's stock-return sensitivity to an AI stock market index and how that sensitivity depends on the share of firm payroll in software engineering, then maps the cross-sectional relationship into productivity gains. By mid-2026, amid rapid progress in coding agents, the paper estimates the effect of AI on productivity and GDP had more than doubled relative to the end of 2025.", "body_md": "# The Macroeconomic Effect of AI through software engineering\n\nWe measure how artificial intelligence (AI) affects the economy through its impact on software engineering productivity. We use information from financial markets to develop a forward-looking measure that is available in real time. We estimate the sensitivity of each firm’s stock return to an AI stock market index, and how this sensitivity depends on the share of firm payroll in software engineering. We use a model to map this cross-sectional relationship into software engineering productivity gains. From November 2022 to December 2025, AI increased the market’s expected present value of software engineering productivity by the equivalent of a permanent 32.6% productivity increase. The corresponding effect on the level of GDP is 3.6% in the baseline and 6.5% when higher software engineering productivity also raises R&D productivity. By mid-2026, amid rapid progress in coding agents, the effect of AI on productivity and GDP had more than doubled relative to the end of 2025.\n\nThat is [a new NBER working paper](https://www.nber.org/papers/w35793#fromrss) by", "url": "https://wpnews.pro/news/the-macroeconomic-effect-of-ai-through-software-engineering", "canonical_source": "https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/09/the-macroeconomic-effect-of-ai-through-software-engineering.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-macroeconomic-effect-of-ai-through-software-engineering", "published_at": "2026-09-29 04:50:01+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-29 05:19:32.111375+00:00", "lang": "en", "topics": ["artificial-intelligence", "ai-research", "ai-agents"], "entities": ["NBER", "AI stock market index"], "also_reported_by": [], "alternates": {"html": "https://wpnews.pro/news/the-macroeconomic-effect-of-ai-through-software-engineering", "markdown": "https://wpnews.pro/news/the-macroeconomic-effect-of-ai-through-software-engineering.md", "text": "https://wpnews.pro/news/the-macroeconomic-effect-of-ai-through-software-engineering.txt", "jsonld": "https://wpnews.pro/news/the-macroeconomic-effect-of-ai-through-software-engineering.jsonld"}}