The July jobs report, SpaceX earnings, and AI struggles: What to watch this week

SpaceX (SPCX) will report its first earnings as a public company on Tuesday, with shares down nearly 30% from their $150 IPO debut last month. The July jobs report, due Friday, is expected to show 88,000 payrolls added, up from June's 57,000, and will test the Fed's labor market focus under Chairman Kevin Warsh. A new Apollo Global study by Torsten Sløk and Sania Edlich found that AI adoption has caused wage compression rather than employment displacement, disproportionately affecting less secure workers.

After last week's busiest five-day stretch of the quarter, investors will get only a small amount of relief this week. Several banner items on the agenda include the monthly nonfarm payrolls on Friday and SpaceX's SPCX first earnings report as a public company on Tuesday. The S&P 500 ^GSPC closed out Friday up 0.7%, for a gain of roughly 1.1% on the week, while the Dow ^DJI picked up 0.5% on Friday to close the week on a similar performance of roughly 1%. The Nasdaq ^IXIC , continuing its rebound, ended Friday up 1% for a weekly gain of 1.6%. Last week's jam-packed served, in many ways, as an excellent set-up for this week's agenda. In the earnings world, all focus will be on SpaceX in its debut earnings report after going public in the world's largest IPO on record. Elon Musk's part rocket, part AI company will have to answer the same question that faced the rest of the Big Tech hyperscalers: How much are you spending, and do the ends justify the means? Elsewhere in the corporate world, investors will get some more AI-trade results from Palantir Technologies PLTR and ON Semiconductor ON on Monday; Advanced Micro Devices AMD on Tuesday; and memory giants Sandisk SNDK and Western Digital WDC on Wednesday. Outside of tech, Big Pharma leaders Eli Lilly LLY and Novo Nordisk NVO report on Wednesday, alongside the Walt Disney Company DIS , while energy giants ConocoPhillips COP and Constellation Energy CEG report Thursday. On the economic data calendar, all eyes will be on a slew of labor market data, with JOLTS data on Tuesday, ADP private employment data on Wednesday, jobless claims numbers on Thursday, and all of it capped off by the marquee nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Labor market in focus In the months since Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed chairman, he has used nearly all of his public comments to talk about inflation and his commitment to bringing it to heel at 2%. By comparison, he's barely talked about the other side of the Fed's mandate: the labor market, which will come under test this week with a jobs report and more. Friday's jobs report is expected to show 88,000 payrolls were added in July, advancing well over June's 57,000 jobs added. Even though those levels are below the 100,000+ jobs added per month in late 2025, economists broadly consider them healthy, and a release in line or weaker will support the Fed's decision to hold off on raising rates. But Wednesday's decision from the FOMC wasn't exactly met with welcome. The 30-year Treasury bond yield pushed above 5.2% to reach its highest level since 2007 on Wednesday, while the 10-year on Friday marked its highest level since January 2025. If the jobs print comes in significantly above target, the combination of a stronger-than-expected labor market and sticky inflation would only further the case for rate hikes from a Fed whose chair has urged patience. Investors will also be looking for any further read on the state of AI disruption in the labor market. In a new study published last week, Apollo Global economists Torsten Sløk and Sania Edlich found that workers in high AI-exposure fields saw their wages grow more slowly, despite also finding AI exposure had little effect on employment itself. Disclosure: Yahoo is a portfolio company of funds managed by affiliates of Apollo Global Management. "The evidence suggests that the first measurable labor market effect of AI adoption has been wage compression rather than employment displacement, with the burden falling disproportionately on the least economically secure workers," the economists wrote. SpaceX looks for the stars in its first earnings report When SpaceX SPCX publishes its second quarter numbers in the company's first earnings report as a public company, Elon Musk & co. will be looking for a catalyst to reignite a stock that, after the world's largest IPO, has largely foundered. SpaceX shares have shed nearly 30% from their $150 market debut last month, and remain down roughly 50% from their all-time high of $225.64. The downfall comes ahead of SpaceX's earnings on Tuesday, but a bigger overhang is a lockup expiration on Aug. 6 that will free as much as 20% of shares for sale under the company's lockup plan. Many investors worry that the added supply will keep the stock under pressure. In addition, Musk is reportedly still pushing for a merger between SpaceX and Tesla TSLA . The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that executives are trying to decide how to dispose of Tesla's China business should that happen. SpaceX's government and national defense contracts could be a concern for the Chinese government. Merger talk aside, when SpaceX reports results next week, investors will have a close eye on the company's spending, S&P Global Visible Alpha analyst Melissa Otto wrote. "SpaceX's capex numbers are expected to increase from $48.7 billion this year to $118.4 billion in FY 2028. … In addition, SpaceX's overall debt is also projected to grow over 5x from $41.7 billion this year to over $218.0 billion in FY 2028," Otto noted. The concern with SpaceX's large capital requirements — like those of the large AI frontier startups and even Oracle ORCL , Alphabet GOOGL , and Meta META — is that its AI infrastructure investments will not generate a healthy return given the level of cash required. On an earnings basis, analysts are looking for an adjusted loss of $0.23 per share and revenue of $6.81 billion. AI 'Situational Awareness' ends in a big mess If there's one story that's captured the craziness of the rotation trade out of semiconductors, it's the downfall of a hedge fund led by a 25-year-old seen as an AI oracle. In 2024, an ex-OpenAI OPAI.PVT researcher named Leopold Aschenbrenner published a 165-page white paper outlining his vision of a not-so-distant future where "artificial general intelligence" — AI systems more capable than the smartest humans — has arrived. Shortly thereafter, Aschenbrenner launched a hedge fund using the same name as the white paper: "Situational Awareness." In less than two years, Aschenbrenner managed to bring his funds' assets under management from just a few hundred million to $45 billion by making concentrated, highly leveraged bets on semiconductors, memory, and other aspects of the AI infrastructure trade. That all collapsed overnight on Wednesday, when news broke that the sector-wide rotation out of semiconductor stocks had crushed Aschenbrenner's portfolio, forcing the AI wunderkind to sell the fund's public assets to hedge fund behemoth Citadel. While much of the conversation around Situational Awareness has been centered on the so-called downfall of a phenom, the event also gets a wider question: When so many resources get funneled into one single thesis — AI is booming, and that's not going to change anytime soon — what happens if and when that thesis cracks? Investors seem to be looking more and more for that answer in legitimate ROI. This theme isn't going away. The big question: Is the Situational Awareness mess a one-off or a sign of things to come? Economic and earnings calendar Monday Economic data: S&P Global manufacturing PMI, July final reading 53.8 previously ; ISM manufacturing, July 54 expected, 53.3 previously ; ISM prices paid, July 70 expected, 73 previously ; ISM new orders, July 57 expected, 56 previously ; ISM employment, July 49.7 previously ; Construction spending, month-on-month, June +0.2% expected, +0.1% previously ; Omdia total vehicle sales, July 16.3 million expected, 16.52 previously Earnings calendar: Palantir Technologies PLTR , Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG , Vertex Pharmaceuticals VRTX , Marriott International MAR , The Williams Companies WMB , Diamondback Energy FANG , ON Semiconductor Corporation ON , Loews L , Tyson Foods TSN , Jazz Pharmaceuticals JAZZ , BWX Technologies BWXT , The Clorox Company CLX , The AES Corporation AES Tuesday Economic data: Trade balance, June -$73 billion expected, -$77.6 billion previously ; Imports, month-on-month, June +3.3% previously ; Exports, month-on-month, June -3.2% previously ; Factory orders, June +0.4% expected, -1.3% previously ; JOLTS job openings, June 7.25 million expected, 7.59 million previously ; JOLTS quits rate, June +1.9% previously ; JOLTS layoffs rate, June +1.1% previously ; Durable goods orders, June final reading +0.3% previously Earnings calendar: SpaceX SPCX , Advanced Micro Devices AMD , Caterpillar CAT , HSBC Holdings HSBC , Merck & Co. MRK , Toyota Motor Corporation TM , Arista Networks ANET , Amgen AMGN , McDonald's Corporation MCD , Gilead Sciences GILD , Pfizer PFE , BP BP , Spotify SPOT , Duke Energy Corporation DUK , Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC , Cummins CMI , Suncor Energy SU , Apollo Global Management APO , Energy Transfer ET , Electronic Arts EA , Devon Energy DVN , Sysco SYY , Archer-Daniels-Midland ADM , Kimberly-Clark Corporation KMB , Tower Semiconductor TSEM Wednesday Economic data: MBA mortgage applications, week ended July 31 -6.4% previously ; ADP employment change, July +75,000 expected, +98,000 previously ; S&P global US services PMI, July final reading 53.6 previously ; S&P Global US composite PMI, July final reading 53.6 previously ; ISM services index, July 54.3 expected, 54 previously ; ISM services prices paid, July 65 expected, 67.7 previously ; ISM services new orders, July 55.1 previously ; ISM services employment, July 51.2 previously Earnings calendar: Eli Lilly LLY , Novo Nordisk NVO , Western Digital WDC , Sandisk SNDK , Walt Disney DIS , Shopify SHOP , Uber Technologies UBER , CVS Health CVS , AppLovin APP , McKesson Corporation MCK , MercadoLibre MELI , DoorDash DASH , Phillips 66 PSX , Brookfield Asset Management BAM , Motorola Solutions MSI , Honeywell Aerospace HONA , MetLife MET , Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY , eBay EBAY , Block XYZ , Thomson Reuters Corporation TRI , Honda Motor Co. HMC , Expedia Group EXPE , Nutrien NTR , Medline MDLN , Kraft Heinz KHC Thursday Economic data: Challenger job cuts, year-on-year, July -4.5% previously ; Nonfarm productivity, second quarter preliminary reading, +0.7% expected, +0.3% previously ; Initial jobless claims, week ended Aug. 1 197,000 previously ; Continuing claims, week ended July 25 1.782 million previously ; Wholesale inventories, month-on-month, June final reading +0.3% previously Earnings calendar: ConocoPhillips COP , Petrobras PBR , Howmet Aerospace HWM , Canadian Natural Resources CNQ , Cloudflare NET , Datadog DDOG , Monster Beverage Corporation MNST , Constellation Energy CEG , Airbnb ABNB , Aflac AFL , Republic Services RSG , Warner Bros. Discovery WBD , Targa Resources Corp. TRGP , Cheniere Energy LNG , Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. WPM , Diageo DEO , Sun Life Financial SLF , Keurig Dr Pepper KDP , Consolidated Edison ED , Kenvue KVUE , Fiserv FISV , Restaurant Brands International QSR , Atlassian TEAM , Formula One FWONA , Fox Corporation FOX , Ralph Lauren RL , Roku ROKU , Evergy EVRG , Warner Music Group WMG , Unity Software U , DraftKings DKNG , Maplebear CART , Molson Coors Beverage Company TAP , Dropbox DBX , Celsius Holdings CELH , MP Materials MP Friday Economic data: Change in nonfarm payrolls, July +88,000 expected, +57,000 previously ; Change in private payrolls, July +93,000 expected, +49,000 previously ; Change in manufacturing payrolls, July +2,000 expected, +3,000 previously ; Average hourly earnings, month-on-month, July +0.3% expected, +0.3% previously ; Average hourly earnings, year-on-year, July +3.5% expected, +3.5% previously ; Unemployment rate, July 4.2% expected, 4.2% previously ; NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations, July +3.67% previously ; Consumer credit, June $12.1 billion expected, -0.18 billion previously Earnings calendar: Vistra Corp. VST , Take-Two Interactive Software TTWO , Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. PAA , Fluor Corporation FLR , Oklo OKLO , Under Armour UA , Wendy's WEN