# The Daily View 7/22/2026: Iran, Polymarket, Math, AI & Job Loss, Trump > Source: > Published: 2026-07-22 18:24:08+00:00 **Item #1: ** [Trump weighs Iran war expansion as fresh US strikes target Hormuz shipping threats.](https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/us-iran-war-strikes-07-20-26) The Iran war is fully “on,” just as I predicted all along since March. Trump is not even pretending there is going to be yet another “deal” or “ceasefire”. Such hopes evaporated 2 weeks ago. If you were on Twitter a month ago saying that the US had “won,” just take the “L”…you were wrong. Meanwhile, I continue to profit by betting “no” on the strait traffic returning to normal: I bought “no” contracts for 18 cents months ago, and the price has almost tripled. Conversely, the value of the “yes” contract has fallen from 82 cents to 55 cents. I also bought “no” contracts on some of the earlier dates. So, this has gone really well. I am still sticking to my original prediction of the strait being impeded until after the 2028 election. **Item #2:** [Trump Imposes 50% Tariff Hike on Canadian Goods.](https://time.com/article/2026/07/21/trump-tariffs-canada-alcohol-motor-vehicles-dairy/) Here we go again with more tariffs. It’s hard to find any enthusiasm for the tariffs, even among the alt/dissident-right accounts I follow on Twitter/X. Anyone with an IQ above 100 knows that tariffs are useless and do not lower inflation or create jobs. They are not a free lunch. What “we” want is to end birthright citizenship or to deal with affordability crisis of healthcare or home ownership, not more useless tariffs. **Item #3:** [SpaceX Stock Sinks Below IPO Price: The Hype Is Over?](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-stock-sinks-below-ipo-131325737.html) I was wrong here. Space-X fell more than I had expected. Even if Space-X stock was to recover, there is no sugarcoating it: the prediction was wrong. **Item #4:** The goyim are unprepared for AI: Normies are so unprepared. They're still educating their children in preparation for them to "get a good job," but they are being sent precisely toward the most easy-to-replace fields: the high education, university domains. The labor market will be moving toward: 1. Management… [https://t.co/23wJG7Lyi3]— Jean-François Gariépy 🧬 (@JFGariepy) [July 18, 2026] He says, “The labor market will be moving toward: 1. Management jobs in the maintenance and improvement of AI. 2. Original use of AI to create non-slop. 3. AI-to-physical interfacing for accomplishing physical work that AI can’t do.” Isn’t that all of them? It’s like “AI will automate all jobs…except practically all jobs.” The part that “AI can’t do” is pretty big. A large percentage of white-collar jobs involve edge cases or coordination. This includes onboarding for advertisers or settling insurance claims. Someone files a claim, and the insurance company has to investigate the circumstances, which are unique to the policy holder, to decide if or how much to pay out. This is very much individualized. Same for law: each case is unique. When there is a lot of money on the line and a binary-type outcome hinges on details, then it’s the role of humans to ensure nothing is overlooked. AI works better for things which are not adversarial, such as website design. Also, it’s not so much that AI will destroy jobs, but rather there is so much wealth to go around that many middle aged men can simply choose to not work. Private wealth is growing at 20-30%/year through stocks (Nasdaq, S&P 500 up huge the past year), homes (real estate returns magnified with mortgages), or private valuations (Open AI, Anthropic worth $1 trillion each)–versus .5%/year population growth in the US. This means more wealth per capita. Almost everyone is a stone toss away from knowing a millionaire, whether in tech or retirement. Plus, huge inheritances and other wealth in the pipeline. **Item #5:** Substack integrates Pangram: [Against Claudefishing](https://post.substack.com/p/against-claudefishing?r=1t02ge&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true) We’re partnering with Pangram, the leading AI-detection tool. You’ll be able to scan notes, replies, comments, and posts to see an estimate of how much of the text was written by hand or with AI assistance. This will work on text longer than 100 words, published from today on, and will show an analysis only to those who request it. As many people note in the comments, the biggest problem are false positives. If your content is falsely flagged as AI, you have no recourse, as there is no way to “opt out” nor is there dispute resolution process. If you wonder, “Why stick to self-hosted blogging?” This is why: I am not at the mercy of a platform changing its rules. **Item #6:** I was right again: Trump’s [approval](https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/approval/president) ratings have have only fallen 2% since March 2026 when the war began, from 38.8% to 36.6%. War is not as unpopular as commonly assumed by the media and online. The “anti-war right” are a small but vocal minority online. Offline, the vast majority of Trump supporters support war or are indifferent. Remarkably, his approval is unchanged over the past 3 months, as indicated by the red box above, despite the situation having deteriorated, overwhelming negative media coverage, and the the war lasting much longer than originally planned. **Item #5:** AI and math: Not really because the math people will still be required to understand the math that everyone will still clearly rely on. AI or no — MJY (@omninomsky) [July 20, 2026] @MJY is right, and Peter Thiel is wrong. Just because he said this in 2024 doesn’t mean he was prescient, because the premise is wrong. As I said 2 days ago, AI [does not](https://greyenlightenment.com/2026/07/20/the-jacobian-conjecture-falls-to-ai/) make mathematicians obsolete. Mathematicians are still needed to craft prompts and to check the output for correctness. Math, unlike the arts, must be objectively correct. It doesn’t matter if AI-generated writing is clunky or is otherwise obvious, but for math, accuracy is paramount for it to “work”. Hence, humans are the ultimate arbiter of math correctness. Also, AI is very good at generating proofs that “appear” correct but may have some subtle flaw or are circular.