The copper crunch: inside the US-China battle for a critical global supply chain

The US and China are competing for control of copper, a metal critical to AI, defense, and energy sectors. The Trump administration is considering tariffs on refined copper imports to rebuild domestic industry, while China dominates global smelting and refining capacity. A White House report due by June 30 will assess the need for new duties.

The copper crunch: inside the US-China battle for a critical global supply chain Washington’s efforts to rebuild the domestic copper industry are colliding with Chinese dominance in a metal central to advanced tech and defence systems As China and the United States compete for leadership in AI, energy and other strategic sectors, a quieter but no less important contest is taking place further down the supply chain: the race to secure copper. The humble metal has become one of the most vital commodities of the 21st century, powering the servers, systems and cooling infrastructure that support artificial intelligence as well as the batteries used in electric vehicles and the electronics guiding modern weapons. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick https://www.scmp.com/topics/howard-lutnick?module=inline&pgtype=article is expected to deliver an updated assessment of the market to the White House by June 30, after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order last year to revive America’s domestic industry. The report will include an update on the necessity of new tariffs on refined copper imports, following a recommendation by Lutnick in a similar report last year. At that time, the commerce secretary suggested duties of 15 per cent to be enacted on the first day of 2027, rising to 30 per cent a year later. existing 50 per cent tariff https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3317571/surprise-us-copper-tariff-tests-mettle-chinas-vast-refining-industry?module=inline&pgtype=article on semi-finished copper products and intensive derivative items, levied in August with other measures designed to encourage domestic production and investment. highly concentrated global industry https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3336261/chinas-copper-heartland-vows-build-us28-billion-empire-dominate-global-market?module=inline&pgtype=article . “A single foreign producer dominates global copper smelting and refining, controlling over 50 per cent of global smelting capacity and holding four of the top five largest refining facilities,” the White House wrote in a February 2025 order, which opened an investigation into copper imports under Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act.