{"slug": "the-ai-re-acceleration-that-wasnt", "title": "The AI Re-Acceleration That Wasn’t", "summary": "An analysis by Paul Kedrosky finds no statistically significant re-acceleration in AI model progress, contradicting claims of a sharp uptick. Using Epoch's Capabilities Index data, a piecewise model does not improve on a linear trend (p = 0.615), with the estimated slope change confidence interval ranging from -8.4 to +23.4 points per year. Kedrosky attributes the apparent acceleration to selective use of frontier observations and other methodological choices.", "body_md": "## What Happened\n\nA recent analysis claims that AI model progress has sharply re-accelerated. Its evidence is the chart below, \"showing\" Epoch’s Capabilities Index rising from **8.3 points per year before 2024 to 15.5 points per year afterward**.\n\nHere is the chart:\n\nEpoch’s complete dataset is much less dramatic and exciting.\n\nHere is the full chart:\n\nSo, what gives?\n\nWell, I did the maths. And here is the answer: Using all ECI observations, and controlling for developer and model family, there is **no statistically significant breakpoint**. A piecewise model—which splits the series into intervals and applies a sub-function to each segment—does not improve on a purely linear trend: **p = 0.615**, The estimated change in slope has a confidence interval of **-8.4 to +23.4 points per year**.\n\nIn short, the maths shows there is no model acceleration, contrary to claims, and as expected. The result comes from **selecting frontier observations only, choosing a breakpoint, ignoring variance collapse, and fitting separate lines** on either side.\n\nMy [earlier work](https://paulkedrosky.com/why-400-hitters-disappeared-and-what-it-means-for-ai/) on the full composite shows the stronger underlying pattern: **rolling relative model gains have fallen from their 2024 peak, while model dispersion has narrowed sharply**.\n\n### What It Means\n\n**There is no evidence that model progress recently re-accelerated.**- The data are consistent with a continuing linear trend.", "url": "https://wpnews.pro/news/the-ai-re-acceleration-that-wasnt", "canonical_source": "https://paulkedrosky.com/the-ai-re-acceleration-that-wasnt/", "published_at": "2026-09-02 19:51:40+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-03 00:23:18.748571+00:00", "lang": "en", "topics": ["artificial-intelligence", "ai-research"], "entities": ["Paul Kedrosky", "Epoch"], "alternates": {"html": "https://wpnews.pro/news/the-ai-re-acceleration-that-wasnt", "markdown": "https://wpnews.pro/news/the-ai-re-acceleration-that-wasnt.md", "text": "https://wpnews.pro/news/the-ai-re-acceleration-that-wasnt.txt", "jsonld": "https://wpnews.pro/news/the-ai-re-acceleration-that-wasnt.jsonld"}}