Tesla will report earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday. TSLA stock is down 14% in 2026. The earnings call will begin around 5:30 p.m. ET.
Tesla's next earnings report is due after the closing bell, and many of the usual topics are on investors' collective radar, with one big addition: SpaceX.
The second-quarter report, due after the closing bell on Wednesday, is Tesla's first since Elon Musk's other big company went public last month. Expect analysts on the call to press Musk for answers on a potential SpaceX-Tesla merger. Bulls say that a tie-up of the two companies is a natural fit and would streamline some of Musk's goals.
Otherwise, the call will be an important update on the big ideas that Tesla has been trying to sell Wall Street on for years now, mainly robotaxis and humanoid robots, or "physical AI."
The earnings will be published shortly after the 4 p.m. ET closing bell, and the call with analysts will begin around 5:30 p.m. ET.
Tesla's EV business bounces back
After a rocky 2025, Tesla's global electric vehicle business is heading in the right direction again.
The Model Y maker reported booming second-quarter sales earlier this month, with EV deliveries rising 25% year-over-year, thanks in part to high gas prices. The surge suggested that Tesla has largely recovered from last year's sales slump, which was partially driven by the end of the $7,500 tax credit for new electric vehicles.
Wall Street was unimpressed by the rosy sales figures, with Tesla's stock falling as much as 8% after the numbers dropped. Despite the company's vehicle business recovering, Elon Musk has made it clear that Tesla's future lies in robotaxis and humanoid robots, not EVs.
Cantor's bullish target rooted in Tesla's robotaxi business
Cantor Fitzgerald has a $510 price target for Tesla stock, 35% higher than Wednesday's price. Analyst Andres Sheppard highlighted the latest vehicle deliveries beat and successful robotaxi rollout, noting that his team expects to see progress continue.
"Overall, we continue to see Tesla's Robotaxi segment and Cybercab as a software-as-a-service, high-margin model," he noted. "We continue to expect TSLA will have the ability to scale rapidly following commercialization (despite the delayed expansion) and capture meaningful market share."
Auto revenues are increasingly irrelevant for the stock, Barclays says
Barclays is less bullish on Tesla stock than some Wall Street peers, maintaining a $370 price target and equal weight rating. While its analysts noted that the company's automotive business is improving, they raised the question of how much that actually matters going forward.
"We believe the key message from the market with respect to Tesla's frothy multiple has been that Tesla's current revenue stream (which is predominantly automotive) is increasingly irrelevant, with the key focus for the stock on future mega-growth initiatives in AI - Robotaxi /FSD / autonomous driving + bots / Optimus humanoids," Barclays wrote.
"Physical AI" will require significant capex
Analysts at Oppenheimer say that Tesla's transition to a leader in "physical AI" will require substantial capex to acquire the necessary compute power and memory capacity.
"We anticipate investors will begin looking at capital investments as a leading indicator of Physical AI success," Oppenheimer analysts wrote."
The firm recently raised its capex outlook for Tesla from $18 billion to $20 billion for the year as it predicts Tesla to "aggressively bring capacity online to enable AI-driven learning cycles on product design, manufacturing processes, and software integration in to products."
Narrative updates won't be enough to drive "decisive" shift for the stock, MS says
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco expects to see progress on several key fronts, though he says the report in unlikely to deliver a significant narrative update to spur a new burst of gains for the stock.
"Strong auto and energy deliveries improve near-term fundamentals, but we continue to believe Robotaxi and Optimus will be the primary drivers for the stock," he said. "Into earnings we expect constructive updates across both, though likely not enough to drive a decisive re-rating."
Tesla heads into earnings with "bears in control"
According to data from S3 Partners, short interest in Tesla stock has spiked since the end of March, rising from 60 million shares to 80 million.
"The steady increase suggests bearish conviction has continued to build heading into earnings. Rather than reducing exposure ahead of a potentially volatile catalyst, short positioning has continued to build alongside weakening price action," S3 managing director, Matthew Unterman, wrote on Tuesday.
From a technical perspective, shares have fallen below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Both are now overhead resistance levels for the stock, S3 said. BofA says focus to be on robotaxi deployment
BofA rates Tesla stock as a "Buy" ahead of earnings and maintains a $391 price target, slightly higher than Wednesday's price. The bank's analysts see the rollout of Tesla robotaxis and Optimus humanoid robot production as key points of interest.
"We think focus for earnings will remain on TSLA's robotaxi deployments," BofA wrote. "TSLA added an additional market & is scaling TX fleet. We think core auto business remains healthy with reported 2Q deliveries above Street as TSLA gains global BEV market share."
Analysts estimate Q2 revenue at $26.3 billion, EPS at $0.34
Second quarter
Adjusted EPS estimate 50c (Bloomberg Consensus)
EPS estimate 34c
Revenue estimate $26.31 billion
Automotive revenue estimate $18.68 billion
Energy generation and storage revenue estimate $3.77 billion