The semiconductor giant's HBM supply is completely sold out for 2026, and analysts are scrambling to keep up with the stock's 224% rally
TD Cowen more than doubled its price target on Micron Technology to $1,500 from $660, maintaining a Buy rating on a stock that has already surged 224% year-to-date. That is not a typo. The new target represents a 127% increase over the previous one, which itself was raised just weeks ago.
The catalyst is straightforward: Micron’s entire high-bandwidth memory production for calendar year 2026 is sold out under binding contracts. In English: every chip Micron can make in the HBM category already has a buyer locked in, and those buyers are building AI infrastructure.
The HBM gold rush #
Micron has positioned itself at the center of this supply chain. The company’s HBM4 products are now in production, delivering what the company describes as enhanced performance and power efficiency over previous generations. When your entire annual output is pre-sold under binding agreements, you have pricing power. And pricing power translates directly into the fat margins that make analysts reach for bigger numbers.
TD Cowen had already signaled growing confidence in Micron earlier this year. On April 28, the firm raised its target from $550 to $660. That upgrade aged quickly. The jump to $1,500 just weeks later suggests Micron’s earnings trajectory is accelerating faster than even bullish forecasters anticipated.
Here’s the thing about binding contracts for an entire year’s supply: they remove the demand uncertainty that normally haunts semiconductor stocks. Micron doesn’t need to hope the AI spending cycle continues through year-end. The revenue is essentially booked.
A trillion-dollar milestone #
Micron briefly crossed the $1 trillion market capitalization threshold in May 2026. The broader analyst community has been playing catch-up. Consensus price targets for Micron now average around $839, with the high end reaching $1,750 from other firms. TD Cowen’s $1,500 target places it firmly in the upper tier of Wall Street estimates but far from the most aggressive call on the street.
What this means for investors #
The gap between the consensus target of $839 and TD Cowen’s $1,500 target is itself revealing. It suggests significant disagreement among professional analysts about how much of Micron’s future earnings are sustainable versus cyclical.
There’s also the competitive landscape to consider. Samsung and SK Hynix are not standing still in the HBM race. Both are investing heavily in next-generation memory products, and any shift in market share dynamics could compress the margins that underpin Micron’s current valuation. For now, Micron’s sold-out order book gives it a moat measured in quarters, not years.
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