SpaceX posts its first-ever quarterly earnings Tuesday, and Wall Street — which already pocketed record underwriting fees from the biggest IPO in history — now wants to know when Elon Musk will stop burning cash.
The stake is straightforward: SpaceX is the company flying rockets, building satellite internet that reaches places telecom giants won't touch, and pushing AI infrastructure that could reshape the economy. Whether it survives Wall Street's quarterly grinder shapes what gets built — and who owns it.
The numbers are ugly. SpaceX reported losses of about $4.3 billion in the first quarter, after losing roughly $4.9 billion in 2025, according to CNN. Net losses for the first half of 2026 are expected to exceed the $5 billion lost in all of 2025, with FactSet analysts forecasting a Q2 net loss of $1.9 billion, or 23 cents per share.
Where's the money going? Capital expenditures hit $10.1 billion in the first quarter — and $7.7 billion went to AI, including data center construction, after SpaceX acquired xAI in February. The company has also announced a deal to buy Cursor to boost its AI business. SpaceX's IPO prospectus claims it will eventually unlock an AI market worth more than $26 trillion. Textbook Musk — and textbook Wall Street skepticism.
Starlink, the satellite internet operation, is the cash engine, with contracts worldwide. But Oppenheimer analysts expect a "modest slowdown" in Starlink revenue growth due to rocket launch delays. The Starship program — which NASA wants to use to return astronauts to the moon — stumbled with an abandoned launch in July before successfully deploying satellites in a late-month test. Future tests could involve giant mechanical arms at the Texas Starbase catching the returning rocket and booster mid-hover.
The stock tells the story. Shares closed Monday at $114, down nearly 50% from the June peak — CNN reported a closing record of $211 on June 16, while the Associated Press put the peak at $225. Either way, the stock is down 15% from the $135 IPO price. Thursday brings the first lockup expiration: more than 900,000 insider shares hit the market, more than doubling the current float. More tranches follow in coming months.
Wall Street's framing is revealing. CNN emphasized investor curiosity about Musk's "body language" over actual financial results. "In our view, results are secondary to reading management's body language and outlook," Timothy Horan, an equity analyst at Oppenheimer, said in a note. The numbers are bad, so watch the showmanship.
Jay Ritter, a University of Florida IPO expert, was blunter: "With this company, the value is so much based upon uncertain future."
Yet analysts still carry an average price target of $228, according to FactSet, with Oppenheimer at $250 — roughly double where the stock trades today. That gap either reflects genuine belief in a turnaround they can't yet quantify, or analysts talking their book.
The AP and WTOP noted another subplot: rumors of a possible SpaceX-Tesla merger. Neither company has confirmed anything, and Musk has deflected before by citing securities regulations — a convenient shield that keeps speculation alive without commitment.
The broader story the financial press won't dwell on: SpaceX is an American company building rockets, satellites, and AI infrastructure on American soil, losing billions in pursuit of goals — orbital data centers, lunar missions, rural broadband — measured in decades, not quarters. The banks collected their IPO fees. Now the institutional class wants quarterly returns from a mission that doesn't run on quarterly timelines.
Thursday's lockup expiration is the first real test of whether insiders believe in that future or want out. The tension between building for the long haul and satisfying Wall Street's demand for short-term returns is about to get sharper.