Allocation failure raises concerns over Korean brokerages' ability to secure shares in future blockbuster listings of OpenAI, Anthropic
Mirae Asset Securities' failure to secure any SpaceX initial public offering shares for its clients has reignited concerns that Korean brokerages remain at a disadvantage in the global IPO market, just as a new wave of blockbuster artificial intelligence listings, led by OpenAI and Anthropic, loom on the horizon.
Industry officials said Monday the episode highlighted the limited influence Korean firms wield in the final allocation process of highly sought-after global offerings, potentially leaving domestic investors shut out of some of the world's most coveted IPOs.
Goldman Sachs, the lead underwriter for the SpaceX offering, adopted a "take-it-or-leave-it" approach, setting the IPO price at $135 per share and determining how much demand each syndicate member could submit.
Mirae Asset placed an order for 2.31 million shares, equivalent to about $312.5 million, and initially expected to receive roughly 30 percent of its requested allocation. However, after the offering was reported to be more than four times oversubscribed, Goldman Sachs informed underwriters that allocations would be reduced.
In the end, Mirae Asset received no shares at all.
The Korean brokerage was not alone. Mizuho Securities of Japan reportedly applied for approximately $6.2 billion worth of shares and received about 35 percent, or $2.2 billion. Other syndicate members also saw allocations scaled back as demand surged.
The outcome forced Mirae Asset to refund all subscription deposits to Korean investors who had participated in the offering.
Complicating matters, Mirae Asset had already reduced its effective subscription volume after foreign exchange authorities expressed concerns about the impact of the dollar demand on the won. The brokerage also allowed investors to withdraw subscriptions until Thursday.
Financial regulators, wary of the won's sharp depreciation, had encouraged brokerages to limit participation to professional investors rather than retail clients and to scale back the overall offering size.
From the perspective of global underwriters, industry officials believe the Korean order may have been viewed as a "soft order" — demand that could potentially be withdrawn and which therefore carries less weight during final allocation decisions. In investment banking, when an IPO is oversubscribed, soft orders are among the first to be reduced or eliminated.
Korean brokerages have increasingly positioned themselves as gateways for overseas IPOs. But when it comes to megadeals involving intense global demand, final allocations remain heavily influenced by major Wall Street firms and their long-standing institutional investor networks.
"Regardless of whether any particular brokerage was at fault, the SpaceX case illustrates the level of allocation competitiveness Korean financial firms currently hold in global capital markets," an industry official said.
"As large-scale technology IPOs gather pace going forward, the global networks and deal-sourcing capabilities of Korean brokerages could once again be put to the test."
The experience is also expected to change how Korean investors evaluate overseas IPO opportunities.
Until now, participation in an underwriting syndicate had been viewed as a reasonable indicator that investors would gain access to shares. Analysts say future investors are likely to pay closer attention to factors such as actual allocation authority, expected allocation ratios and investor protection mechanisms.
The concerns come as attention increasingly turns to a potential pipeline of AI-related IPOs.
OpenAI and Anthropic are widely regarded as two of the most valuable companies in the global AI industry and are frequently mentioned as potential listing candidates in coming years. Any public offering would likely attract intense demand from technology funds, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and AI-focused investors worldwide.
"If OpenAI or Anthropic go public, it would likely be one of the most closely watched IPOs in recent years," another official said.
"If competition in the bookbuilding process intensifies, the allocation available to Asian investors could end up smaller than expected."
ch0221@heraldcorp.com