SpaceX extends decline to 11% on lockup expiration and capex spending fears

SpaceX shares fell 11% in pre-market trading Wednesday as investors weighed heavy capital spending and a major insider-share unlock due Thursday, despite a stronger-than-expected first earnings report. Revenue rose 92% to $7.8 billion, beating estimates, while adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion, but the company spent $18.4 billion in the quarter. JPMorgan raised its price target to $240 and projected capex of nearly $200 billion in 2027 and 2028, while Raymond James reiterated its Street-high $800 target.

SpaceX shares fell 11% in pre-market trading Wednesday as investors looked past a stronger-than-expected first earnings report and toward heavy capital spending and a major insider-share unlock due Thursday. Revenue rose 92% from a year earlier to $7.8 billion, beating Wall Street estimates, while adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion. The company narrowed its net loss to $541 million, but spent $18.4 billion during the quarter as it expanded Starlink, Starship and its AI infrastructure. SpaceX held all 18,712 bitcoin on its balance sheet through the quarter. The position was worth about $1.1 billion at the end of June, bringing into view the accounting risk CoinDesk flagged before the IPO — that bitcoin price swings now flow through the public company’s quarterly earnings under fair-value rules. The stake lost roughly $195 million in value during the quartet, adding volatility to results. JPMorgan, which raised its price target to $240 from $225, said it now expects the space company’s capital expenditures to reach nearly $200 billion in both 2027 and 2028, adding more pressure on free cash flow. "We now project capex of nearly $200 billion in both 2027 & 2028, which further pressures free cash flow in 2027, a trend we see across the hyperscalers," the analysts wrote. The bank also pointed to Thursday's lock-up expiration, when 911.5 million shares could become eligible for sale, potentially increasing the public float by 143%, though it said much of the event may already be priced in because investors have had months to prepare. Raymond James reiterated its Street-high $800 price target, arguing the company's operating performance remains strong. Shares are currently changing hands at $111.80.