{"slug": "spacex-could-hit-1tn-a-year-by-2030-musk-claims-after-record-ipo", "title": "SpaceX could hit $1tn a year by 2030, Musk claims after record IPO", "summary": "Elon Musk claimed SpaceX could generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, two days after the company's record-breaking IPO valued it at over $2 trillion. The projection far exceeds underwriter estimates of $330-$474 billion for 2030, with growth expected from Starlink and satellite-based AI services. SpaceX reported $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025.", "body_md": "Two days after taking SpaceX public in [the largest stock-market debut on record](https://thenextweb.com/news/spacex-nasdaq-debut-bell-musk-shotwell), Elon Musk said the company could be earning roughly $1tn a year by 2030, and probably more in 2031.\n\nHe made the claim on X over the weekend, as Reuters reported, with the stock still settling after a debut that valued the rocket maker at more than $2tn.\n\nThe figure is large even by the standards of a founder given to large figures. [SpaceX reported $18.7bn](https://thenextweb.com/news/spacex-s1-prospectus-filed-nasdaq-spcx-record-ipo) in revenue for 2025, against a loss of $4.9bn, in the filings prepared for the listing. Getting from there to $1tn in five years implies a fifty-fold expansion. No company of SpaceX’s size has grown at anything close to that pace.\n\nThe banks that took the company public do not see it either. Goldman Sachs put 2030 revenue at about $474bn, with a large share coming from a satellite-borne AI business. Morgan Stanley landed near $330bn for the same year, reaching $3.4tn only by 2040. Musk’s number for 2030 is roughly double the more bullish of the two underwriters’ estimates.\n\nWhere the growth is supposed to come from is, by every account, Starlink and the satellite-AI ambitions stacked on top of it, rather than launch.\n\nGoldman’s model has the bulk of future revenue arriving from that direction, which is also where its assumptions are hardest to test. One analyst [has questioned](https://www.investing.com/analysis/spacex-ipo-faces-a-credibility-test-over-goldmans-ai-revenue-model-200681606) whether the AI revenue line can be justified at all.\n\nThe trajectory that gets SpaceX even to the banks’ numbers is steep on its own. Revenue stood near $10bn in 2023 and $14bn in 2024 before the $18.7bn reported for 2025, growth of roughly a third year on year.\n\nSustaining that rate would be an achievement; the leap Musk describes is a different category of claim, requiring the curve to bend far more sharply upward than it has so far.\n\nThe gap between founder and underwriter is not unusual for a Musk company, and investors who bought into the IPO presumably knew the pattern. He has a record of targets that arrive late rather than not at all, which is the charitable reading his backers tend to apply to the dates while taking the direction seriously.\n\nThe listing was priced at a valuation near $1.77tn and aimed to raise around $75bn, one of the largest debuts on record on either measure.\n\nThe next test is mundane by comparison: SpaceX is now a public company, with quarterly disclosure and an investor base that will mark the revenue line against the forecasts every three months. That is a new kind of accountability for a business that operated for two decades as a closely held private firm answerable mainly to its founder.\n\nThe market has a number from the founder and two lower numbers from the banks, and four and a half years to see which one the company grows into.\n\n## Get the TNW newsletter\n\nGet the most important tech news in your inbox each week.", "url": "https://wpnews.pro/news/spacex-could-hit-1tn-a-year-by-2030-musk-claims-after-record-ipo", "canonical_source": "https://thenextweb.com/news/musk-spacex-1-trillion-revenue-2030", "published_at": "2026-06-15 08:22:13+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-15 08:45:20.012096+00:00", "lang": "en", "topics": ["artificial-intelligence", "ai-infrastructure", "ai-products", "ai-startups"], "entities": ["SpaceX", "Elon Musk", "Goldman Sachs", "Morgan Stanley", "Starlink", "Reuters", "TNW"], "alternates": {"html": "https://wpnews.pro/news/spacex-could-hit-1tn-a-year-by-2030-musk-claims-after-record-ipo", "markdown": "https://wpnews.pro/news/spacex-could-hit-1tn-a-year-by-2030-musk-claims-after-record-ipo.md", "text": "https://wpnews.pro/news/spacex-could-hit-1tn-a-year-by-2030-musk-claims-after-record-ipo.txt", "jsonld": "https://wpnews.pro/news/spacex-could-hit-1tn-a-year-by-2030-musk-claims-after-record-ipo.jsonld"}}