SpaceX (SPCX) bulls best keep a close eye on the company's cash flow statement the next year or so, because some line items are about to take off in a big way.
The big call #
Big capital expenditures and big capital raises are poised to land on the doorstep of the SpaceX investment thesis in the coming months as the company builds its futuristic world, KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock said in a new note.
"With about $50 billion /GW established as the industry benchmark for capex required for AI capacity buildouts, a more conservative path to 6-7 GW of capacity (rather than 8-9 GW) by year end 2027 could still imply about $250 billion to $300 billion of cumulative capital before considering potential efficiency gains if SpaceX can do it cheaper than peers," Leshock said. "That said, the cost of deploying incremental AI compute capacity continues to increase, and we believe this is a very realistic level of investment needed to achieve its slated levels of compute."
He added, "Given its roughly $100 billion cash balance, current free cash flow burn rate, and the magnitude of its planned spending, we expect SpaceX will look to raise capital over the near to mid term to fund this growth. We assume about $325 billion of additional capital raises over the next 18-24 months."
Catch up #
SpaceX stock continues to trade off its post-IPO lows, as a form of stability has set into the trade.
Shares have rallied from an intraday low of $104.83 on Aug. 3 up to a close of $140.57 on Aug. 14.
Lost somewhat in the focus on the lockup expiry and the rally from the lows have been the puts and takes to SpaceX's second quarter and how the performance may look similar in the third quarter.
For one, the company lost a ton of money in its first earnings report out of the gate. And two, SpaceX's total capital expenditures in the second quarter were $18.4 billion, well above analyst estimates of around $6 billion.
Lastly, the company didn't provide specific 2026 guidance.
Wall Street has stayed bullish, however. About 80% of the sell-side analysts rate SpaceX a Buy or Strong Buy, per Yahoo Finance AlphaSpace data.
"While the stock remains negatively impacted on elevated capex expectations and questions on how SpaceX will monetize its capabilities through AI and Starlink Mobile, we are more positive in SpaceX's positioning across its key markets following 2Q," BofA analyst Ronald Epstein said in a note.
The bottom line #
SpaceX's Starship will launch again in the coming weeks, likely marking the first attempt at catching the Starship upper stage at the pad instead of it making a splashdown landing in the ocean. This is among the most important milestones to achieving full and rapid reusability.