# Softbank CEO Calls SpaceX’s Orbital AI Bet Overpriced > Source: > Published: 2026-06-23 19:21:59+00:00 SpaceX barely had time to cash its IPO checks before one of tech’s sharpest capital allocators declared its central premise overpriced. Days after SpaceX raised roughly **$75 billion** at a **$1.7 trillion valuation** — the largest IPO on record — SoftBank CEO **Masayoshi Son** told shareholders that [building data centers](https://gizmodo.com/softbank-ceo-shoots-down-musks-plan-for-orbital-data-centers-as-spacex-stock-falls-back-to-earth-2000776091) in space has “little merit,” [according to Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-23/masa-son-dismisses-musk-s-space-data-center-as-an-ai-race-winner). The [AI race](https://www.gadgetreview.com/chatgpt-becomes-fastest-app-to-hit-1-billion-users-as-claude-surges-in-ai-race), Son argued, gets decided on the ground. ## Son’s Earth-First Thesis Hits Where It Hurts *Son’s argument isn’t about rockets — it’s about where the real money in AI infrastructure actually goes.* At SoftBank’s mobile-unit [shareholder meeting](https://cryptobriefing.com/softbank-son-challenges-musk-orbital-data-centers/) on June 23, Son laid out a blunt cost argument. Cheap orbital solar power sounds attractive until you realize electricity represents only a small fraction of what data centers actually spend. The dominant expense is chips and hardware. Son called Musk a “remarkable agent of change” but made his position unmistakable: SoftBank will build “formidable” compute capacity on Earth. “He who strikes first wins,” [he added](https://www.moneycontrol.com/world/he-who-strikes-first-wins-masayoshi-son-rejects-elon-musk-s-space-data-center-dream-in-ai-race-article-13956341.html) — and striking first means breaking ground in France, not breaking orbit. Here’s what the economics actually look like: **Energy** accounts for roughly 10–15% of a data center’s lifetime cost. Chips and hardware consume about 70%.- Current estimates place **space-based compute** at 2–7x the cost of equivalent ground-based operations. - SoftBank is backing that math with an **$80–90 billion** France data-center buildout, plus billions invested in OpenAI’s[Stargate initiative](https://www.gadgetreview.com/openai-and-partners-launch-500-billion-stargate-project). - Commercial orbital compute deployment isn’t expected until the late 2020s at the earliest — if it arrives at all. Musk insists no “magic” is required. [SpaceX’s AI1 satellites](https://www.space.com/space-exploration/satellites/elon-musk-wants-to-put-1-million-ai-satellites-in-space-heres-how-spacex-could-do-it) would carry Nvidia GB300 GPUs, powered by solar arrays and networked through Starlink’s laser links. The target: one gigawatt of orbital compute annualized by late next year, scaling tenfold annually from there. [Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/why-we-think-spacex-ipo-is-overvalued), however, assigns roughly a **7% probability** to [SpaceX’s](https://www.gadgetreview.com/spacexs-biggest-ipo-ever-is-already-burning-retail-investors) optimistic orbital scenario — a number that should give any investor pause. ## The $26.5 Trillion Question Hanging Over SpaceX Stock *SpaceX’s IPO math only works if orbital AI compute is real — and right now, that’s a very large if.* That 7% matters because [SpaceX’s IPO filings](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm) claim a **$28.5 trillion** total addressable market, with **$26.5 trillion** attributed to orbital AI compute. Strip that projection away, and you’re looking at a fundamentally different company at a fundamentally different price. The stock has already slipped below its $135–$150 IPO range before recovering, as investors reassess how quickly — and how profitably — orbital compute might materialize. Son might be wrong. Terrestrial power grids could buckle under surging [AI demand](https://www.gadgetreview.com/anthropic-partners-with-spacex-to-meet-ai-demand), eventually vindicating Musk’s orbital thesis. But “the next few years will be far more important,” Son told investors. If that’s true, the winners are already pouring concrete — not launching satellites.