Show HN: PolyBridge – a causal model for forecasting global events

PolyBridge, a causal model for forecasting global events, combines prediction markets with other data sources in a probabilistic graphical model, indexing over 170k event contracts. The model handles current-state queries, forecasts, conditionals, interventions, and counterfactuals, and publishes curated Situation Rooms for following topics over time.

Hi HN, I’m working on PolyBridge. Ask a question about a future event and it returns a probability, a credible interval, and the evidence behind the result. API/docs: https://polybridge.ai/api https://polybridge.ai/api It combines prediction markets with other data sources in a probabilistic graphical model. We currently index more than 170k event contracts across major prediction-market venues. The model handles current-state queries, forecasts, conditionals, interventions, and counterfactuals. For example, there may be a market on whether the Fed cuts rates in September, but not on how a spike in oil prices would change those odds. The model estimates the change using the relationships between rates, inflation, oil prices, recession risk, and other evidence. We also publish Situation Rooms, which are curated pages for following a topic over time. Here is one for the 2028 presidential race: https://polybridge.ai/situation-rooms/2028-race-to-the-white... https://polybridge.ai/situation-rooms/2028-race-to-the-white-house The API includes Search for finding relevant evidence and Forecast for returning a probability and the reasoning behind it. I’d appreciate feedback on the API, the Situation Rooms, and the kinds of questions you would test. Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49083805 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49083805 Points: 1 Comments: 0