Show HN: Crypto portfolio risk and scenario analysis with AI agents on top

Sentralis launched a non-custodial, read-only crypto portfolio analytics platform that combines deterministic risk engines with AI agents for scenario analysis and reporting. The product offers 9 scenario types, including Monte Carlo and historical replay, and 6 Risk Workbench modules, with zero custody or signing access to user assets. Sentralis targets self-directed crypto holders with desktop-first risk metrics, counterparty exposure views, and Basic or Extended AI commentary on reports.

Sentralis · Professional analytics for crypto holders Institutional-grade scenario intelligence for self-directed crypto holders. Sentralis helps individual crypto holders understand portfolio behavior across assets, wallets, exchanges, liquidity conditions, market factors, and hypothetical allocation changes. Non-custodial, read-only, and built for analysis rather than trading. For long-term, self-directed holders. Desktop-first. Non-custodial, read-only, and educational. ScenariosRisk metricsAI reports Where Sentralis fits Exchanges execute. Aggregators show balances. Sentralis analyzes. Sentralis Portfolio scenario and risk intelligence. Sentralis turns holdings from wallets, exchanges, manual entries, and hypothetical portfolios into risk metrics, scenario results, liquidity views, counterparty exposure, allocation comparisons, and AI-assisted explanations. Forward-looking scenario analysis. Risk and concentration decomposition. Read-only, non-custodial imports. Reports with Basic or Extended AI commentary. Wallets & exchanges Hold balances, provide account access, and support custody or execution workflows. Aggregators Show a consolidated view of balances and positions across sources. Tax tools Organize historical records for accounting, reporting, and filing. 9 Available scenario types From Monte Carlo and historical replay to liquidity, factor, macro, and counterparty analysis. Additional scenarios in the pipeline. 6 Risk Workbench modules Durable investigations, from portfolio teardowns and event decomposition to pre-mortem analysis. 0 Custody / signing access Sentralis never holds your assets and never asks for private keys or signing capability. What Sentralis helps you understand A professional analytics layer for individual crypto portfolios. How much could I lose realistically in a bad month given historical precedence? If another FTX-like event occurs today, where would my portfolios bottom out, and how long until recovery? If BTC dropped 30% next week, which positions would actually hold up, and which would amplify the move? If positions had to be unwound this week, what share could actually exit without meaningful slippage? If Binance returned only 25% of assets while an ETH bridge simultaneously recovered just 50%, what's the combined hit? If correlations spiked to crisis-period levels, how much of the portfolio's diversification benefit would actually survive? Product walkthrough See the portfolio from multiple analytical angles. From morning snapshot to deep stress test to wide-ranging what-ifs: perspectives on your portfolios that a tracker or aggregator doesn't show. Nine scenarios in the library today, more on the way. Live screenshots. 01Dashboard One glance snapshot to know whether the market is calm, stressed, or cracking, and where your portfolios stand in that picture. 02Holdings with tags Slice your holdings by exchange, chain, or strategy and let Sentralis do the deep analysis of your exposures. 03Risk metrics Understand your risk profile, from every angle - with industry-strength metrics. 04Monte Carlo See where your portfolio is likely headed and the full range of outcomes worth being ready for. 05Historical replay Replay the market shocks to major historical events to see your portfolios' "what-if" response. 06Counterparty exposure Get clarity on compounding exposures and concentrations across venues, chains, and protocols. Risk Workbench Run durable risk investigations. The Risk Workbench turns one-off questions into saved, revisitable investigations. Each module combines Sentralis's deterministic risk engines with bounded agentic analysis. You see the estimated cost before you launch, and every run is stored with its full history. Featured module Event Decomposition Describe an event in plain language and get a branch map of causally distinct risk paths, each runnable against your own portfolio in a single click. If an event has no material effect on your holdings, the analysis says so. “Iran conflict is resolved, Strait of Hormuz opens”“A top-3 exchange faces insolvency rumors while funding rates flip deeply negative” Portfolio Teardown A sectioned, evidence-traceable stress report of your portfolio. Risk Time Machine Replay today’s portfolio through historical market snapshots and see where its risk profile changed. Risk Delta Autopsy Decompose a risk change into market, composition, and interaction effects. Marginal Risk Explorer Measure how resizing individual positions moves each risk metric. Pre-Mortem Generate, quantify, and rank plausible failure mechanisms for your portfolio. Alerts & reports Analysis that keeps watching after you log off. Turn your risk analysis or any saved scenario into a standing watch. Alerts re-run it on a schedule and email you when a condition you set becomes true: a VaR ceiling, a drawdown limit, a concentration threshold. Scheduled reports deliver the full picture as PDF or JSON, daily to monthly, with optional commentary. Alert on core risk metrics VaR, expected shortfall, drawdown, exit liquidity, concentration, across risk analysis and every scenario type. Fires on threshold crossings An alert fires when a condition first becomes true, then stays quiet until it clears and triggers again. Email delivery plus in-app history. Reports on your cadence Scheduled PDF or JSON reports with optional commentary; every analysis page also exports a report on demand. Higher tiers add daily cadence and more concurrent alerts and schedules. Sentralis AI Tunable AI analysis grounded in your portfolio context. Sentralis AI reads your live holdings, risk metrics, and scenario results before it answers, and adapts its depth, language, and risk framing to match how you actually invest. Ask questions from any page with on-screen data already in context. Add basic or in-depth commentary to reports, from metric summaries to cross-metric structural analysis. Adapts to your sophistication level, from beginner-friendly to expert. Respects your risk tolerance conservative, balanced, or aggressive in every response. Deep Thinking mode for complex, multi-step portfolio questions. Your personal risk analyst inside every report: Sentralis AI writes its commentary from your numbers Build on Sentralis The same risk engines, over REST and MCP. The analyses behind the app, callable from your own tools. The Sentralis API exposes eight risk engines over plain HTTP: discover engines, submit an analysis against a stored or ad-hoc portfolio, and poll the result. An OpenAPI 3.1 contract and a hosted quick-start cover the integration details. REST API Async submit-and-poll for portfolio analyses, including point-in-time runs on historical dates. MCP Connect Claude or any MCP-capable assistant directly to Sentralis: list engines, search assets, run analyses, and read results from your AI workflow. Running analyses over MCP is available on Pro and Premium plans. Scoped API keys Created in the app, read-only by default, revocable instantly, with per-key usage visibility. Create a key in the app: User → API Keys curl -X POST https://app.sentralis.io/api/v1/analyses \ -H "Authorization: Bearer sk live …" \ -H "Content-Type: application/json" \ -d '{"engine": "monte-carlo", "portfolio": {"ref": "…"}, "config": {…}}' → 202 {"id": "…", "status": "queued"} curl https://app.sentralis.io/api/v1/analyses/{id} \ -H "Authorization: Bearer sk live …" Async submit-and-poll. Full reference and OpenAPI 3.1 contract ship with the app. Safety model Built for analysis, not custody. Sentralis is non-custodial and read-only. It does not request seed phrases, move funds, sign transactions, or place trades. You can also use manual or hypothetical portfolios without connecting accounts. Can analyze Holdings and balances. Wallet and exchange sources. Portfolio risk metrics. Scenario results. Hypothetical allocations. Cannot do Move funds. Sign transactions. Place orders. Access seed phrases. Provide financial advice. Pricing Free to start. Prepaid when you need more. Free $0 forever Every engine on your real portfolio. No payment, no card, does not expire. Pro $29 / 30 days The full investigation toolkit for serious self-directed holders. Premium $49 / 30 days Daily cadence, unlimited portfolios, the largest allowances. No. Sentralis is for portfolio analysis, scenario testing, and analysis reports. It does not execute trades or manages transactions. How do I get access? Sentralis is live. Click Launch App to create an account. You can start with manually entered or hypothetical portfolios in minutes, no wallet or exchange connection required. Do I need to connect a wallet or exchange? No. Wallet and exchange connectivity is only provided for convenience.You can use manually entered holdings or hypothetical portfolio positions without connecting accounts. Connecting wallets or exchanges is only used to import holdings and metadata and to enforce uniqueness. Which exchanges are supported? Sentralis currently supports importing positions from Binance, Kraken, Coinbase, Bybit, and Gate.io. You can also enter portfolios manually or use hypothetical portfolios without connecting an exchange. Does Sentralis support futures and derivates? No. Sentralis currently supports only spot holdings and balances. We plan to add futures and derivatives support in a future release. Is Sentralis for mobile? Sentralis is a desktop analytics application optimized for desktop screens and modern browsers. How is AI used? Sentralis AI is a context-aware assistant and analyst. It knows your porfolio and the risks or scenarios you are working with. AI output is not financial advice and should never be considered as trading signals. Is there a roadmap? Yes. Sentralis is actively developed: new scenarios, workbench modules, and integrations ship regularly. Is there an API? Yes. Sentralis exposes a REST API and an MCP endpoint with scoped, read-only-by-default API keys, so your own tools and AI assistants can run the same analyses as the app. See the Build on Sentralis section above. Can Sentralis watch my portfolio for me? Yes. Risk alerts re-run your chosen analysis on a schedule and email you when a threshold condition becomes true. Scheduled reports deliver PDF or JSON summaries on a daily to monthly cadence. Is Sentralis financial advice? No. Outputs are analytical and educational. Sentralis is not a financial advisor, broker, custodian, or trading platform. You keep the decisions; we provide the analysis.