{"slug": "show-hn-crypto-portfolio-risk-and-scenario-analysis-with-ai-agents-on-top", "title": "Show HN: Crypto portfolio risk and scenario analysis with AI agents on top", "summary": "Sentralis launched a non-custodial, read-only crypto portfolio analytics platform that combines deterministic risk engines with AI agents for scenario analysis and reporting. The product offers 9 scenario types, including Monte Carlo and historical replay, and 6 Risk Workbench modules, with zero custody or signing access to user assets. Sentralis targets self-directed crypto holders with desktop-first risk metrics, counterparty exposure views, and Basic or Extended AI commentary on reports.", "body_md": "Sentralis · Professional analytics for crypto holders\n\nInstitutional-grade\nscenario intelligence\nfor self-directed crypto holders.\n\nSentralis helps individual crypto holders understand portfolio\nbehavior across assets, wallets, exchanges, liquidity conditions,\nmarket factors, and hypothetical allocation changes. Non-custodial,\nread-only, and built for analysis rather than trading.\n\nFor long-term, self-directed holders. Desktop-first. Non-custodial,\nread-only, and educational.\n\nScenariosRisk metricsAI reports\n\nWhere Sentralis fits\n\nExchanges execute. Aggregators show balances.\nSentralis analyzes.\n\nSentralis\n\nPortfolio scenario and risk intelligence.\n\nSentralis turns holdings from wallets, exchanges, manual entries,\nand hypothetical portfolios into risk metrics, scenario results,\nliquidity views, counterparty exposure, allocation comparisons,\nand AI-assisted explanations.\n\nForward-looking scenario analysis.\n\nRisk and concentration decomposition.\n\nRead-only, non-custodial imports.\n\nReports with Basic or Extended AI commentary.\n\nWallets & exchanges\n\nHold balances, provide account access, and support custody or execution workflows.\n\nAggregators\n\nShow a consolidated view of balances and positions across sources.\n\nTax tools\n\nOrganize historical records for accounting, reporting, and filing.\n\n9\n\nAvailable scenario types\n\nFrom Monte Carlo and historical replay to liquidity, factor, macro,\nand counterparty analysis. Additional scenarios in the pipeline.\n\n6\n\nRisk Workbench modules\n\nDurable investigations, from portfolio teardowns and event\ndecomposition to pre-mortem analysis.\n\n0\n\nCustody / signing access\n\nSentralis never holds your assets and never asks for private keys\nor signing capability.\n\nWhat Sentralis helps you understand\n\nA professional analytics layer for individual crypto portfolios.\n\nHow much could I lose realistically in a bad month given historical precedence?\n\nIf another FTX-like event occurs today, where would my portfolios bottom out, and how long until recovery?\n\nIf BTC dropped 30% next week, which positions would actually hold up, and which would amplify the move?\n\nIf positions had to be unwound this week, what share could actually exit without meaningful slippage?\n\nIf Binance returned only 25% of assets while an ETH bridge simultaneously recovered just 50%, what's the combined hit?\n\nIf correlations spiked to crisis-period levels, how much of the portfolio's diversification benefit would actually survive?\n\nProduct walkthrough\n\nSee the portfolio from multiple analytical angles.\n\nFrom morning snapshot to deep stress test to wide-ranging what-ifs:\nperspectives on your portfolios that a tracker or aggregator doesn't show.\nNine scenarios in the library today, more on the way. Live screenshots.\n\n01Dashboard\n\nOne glance snapshot to know whether the market is calm, stressed, or cracking, and where your portfolios stand in that picture.\n\n02Holdings with tags\n\nSlice your holdings by exchange, chain, or strategy and let Sentralis do the deep analysis of your exposures.\n\n03Risk metrics\n\nUnderstand your risk profile, from every angle - with industry-strength metrics.\n\n04Monte Carlo\n\nSee where your portfolio is likely headed and the full range of outcomes worth being ready for.\n\n05Historical replay\n\nReplay the market shocks to major historical events to see your portfolios' \"what-if\" response.\n\n06Counterparty exposure\n\nGet clarity on compounding exposures and concentrations across venues, chains, and protocols.\n\nRisk Workbench\n\nRun durable\nrisk investigations.\n\nThe Risk Workbench turns one-off questions into saved, revisitable\ninvestigations. Each module combines Sentralis's deterministic risk\nengines with bounded agentic analysis. You see the estimated cost\nbefore you launch, and every run is stored with its full history.\n\nFeatured module\n\nEvent Decomposition\n\nDescribe an event in plain language and get a branch map of causally\ndistinct risk paths, each runnable against your own portfolio in a\nsingle click. If an event has no material effect on your holdings,\nthe analysis says so.\n\n“Iran conflict is resolved, Strait of Hormuz opens”“A top-3 exchange faces insolvency rumors while funding rates flip deeply negative”\n\nPortfolio Teardown\n\nA sectioned, evidence-traceable stress report of your portfolio.\n\nRisk Time Machine\n\nReplay today’s portfolio through historical market snapshots and see where its risk profile changed.\n\nRisk Delta Autopsy\n\nDecompose a risk change into market, composition, and interaction effects.\n\nMarginal Risk Explorer\n\nMeasure how resizing individual positions moves each risk metric.\n\nPre-Mortem\n\nGenerate, quantify, and rank plausible failure mechanisms for your portfolio.\n\nAlerts & reports\n\nAnalysis that keeps watching after you log off.\n\nTurn your risk analysis or any saved scenario into a standing watch.\nAlerts re-run it on a schedule and email you when a condition you set\nbecomes true: a VaR ceiling, a drawdown limit, a concentration\nthreshold. Scheduled reports deliver the full picture as PDF or JSON,\ndaily to monthly, with optional commentary.\n\nAlert on core risk metrics\n\nVaR, expected shortfall, drawdown, exit liquidity, concentration, across risk analysis and every scenario type.\n\nFires on threshold crossings\n\nAn alert fires when a condition first becomes true, then stays quiet until it clears and triggers again. Email delivery plus in-app history.\n\nReports on your cadence\n\nScheduled PDF or JSON reports with optional commentary; every analysis page also exports a report on demand. Higher tiers add daily cadence and more concurrent alerts and schedules.\n\nSentralis AI\n\nTunable AI analysis grounded in your portfolio context.\n\nSentralis AI reads your live holdings, risk metrics,\nand scenario results before it answers, and adapts its depth,\nlanguage, and risk framing to match how you actually invest.\n\nAsk questions from any page with on-screen data already in context.\n\nAdd basic or in-depth commentary to reports, from metric summaries to cross-metric structural analysis.\n\nAdapts to your sophistication level, from beginner-friendly to expert.\n\nRespects your risk tolerance (conservative, balanced, or aggressive) in every response.\n\nDeep Thinking mode for complex, multi-step portfolio questions.\n\nYour personal risk analyst inside every report: Sentralis AI writes its commentary from your numbers\n\nBuild on Sentralis\n\nThe same risk engines, over REST and MCP.\n\nThe analyses behind the app, callable from your own tools. The\nSentralis API exposes eight risk engines over plain HTTP: discover\nengines, submit an analysis against a stored or ad-hoc portfolio,\nand poll the result. An OpenAPI 3.1 contract and a hosted\nquick-start cover the integration details.\n\nREST API\n\nAsync submit-and-poll for portfolio analyses, including point-in-time runs on historical dates.\n\nMCP\n\nConnect Claude or any MCP-capable assistant directly to Sentralis: list engines, search assets, run analyses, and read results from your AI workflow. Running analyses over MCP is available on Pro and Premium plans.\n\nScoped API keys\n\nCreated in the app, read-only by default, revocable instantly, with per-key usage visibility.\n\n```\n# Create a key in the app: User → API Keys\n\ncurl -X POST https://app.sentralis.io/api/v1/analyses \\\n  -H \"Authorization: Bearer sk_live_…\" \\\n  -H \"Content-Type: application/json\" \\\n  -d '{\"engine\": \"monte-carlo\",\n       \"portfolio\": {\"ref\": \"…\"},\n       \"config\": {…}}'\n# → 202 {\"id\": \"…\", \"status\": \"queued\"}\n\ncurl https://app.sentralis.io/api/v1/analyses/{id} \\\n  -H \"Authorization: Bearer sk_live_…\"\n```\n\nAsync submit-and-poll. Full reference and OpenAPI 3.1 contract ship\nwith the app.\n\nSafety model\n\nBuilt for analysis, not custody.\n\nSentralis is non-custodial and read-only. It does not request seed\nphrases, move funds, sign transactions, or place trades. You can also\nuse manual or hypothetical portfolios without connecting accounts.\n\nCan analyze\n\nHoldings and balances.\n\nWallet and exchange sources.\n\nPortfolio risk metrics.\n\nScenario results.\n\nHypothetical allocations.\n\nCannot do\n\nMove funds.\n\nSign transactions.\n\nPlace orders.\n\nAccess seed phrases.\n\nProvide financial advice.\n\nPricing\n\nFree to start. Prepaid when you need more.\n\nFree\n\n$0 forever\n\nEvery engine on your real portfolio. No payment, no card, does not expire.\n\nPro\n\n$29 / 30 days\n\nThe full investigation toolkit for serious self-directed holders.\n\nPremium\n\n$49 / 30 days\n\nDaily cadence, unlimited portfolios, the largest allowances.\n\nNo. Sentralis is for portfolio analysis, scenario testing, and\nanalysis reports. It does not execute trades or manages transactions.\n\nHow do I get access?\n\nSentralis is live. Click Launch App to create an account. You can\nstart with manually entered or hypothetical portfolios in minutes,\nno wallet or exchange connection required.\n\nDo I need to connect a wallet or exchange?\n\nNo. Wallet and exchange connectivity is only provided for convenience.You can use manually entered holdings or hypothetical portfolio positions without\nconnecting accounts. Connecting wallets or exchanges is only used to import holdings and metadata and to enforce uniqueness.\n\nWhich exchanges are supported?\n\nSentralis currently supports importing positions from Binance, Kraken, Coinbase,\nBybit, and Gate.io. You can also enter portfolios manually or use\nhypothetical portfolios without connecting an exchange.\n\nDoes Sentralis support futures and derivates?\n\nNo. Sentralis currently supports only spot holdings and balances. We plan to add futures and derivatives support in a future release.\n\nIs Sentralis for mobile?\n\nSentralis is a desktop analytics application optimized for desktop screens and modern browsers.\n\nHow is AI used?\n\nSentralis AI is a context-aware assistant and analyst. It knows your porfolio and the risks or scenarios you are working with.\nAI output is not financial advice and should never be considered as trading signals.\n\nIs there a roadmap?\n\nYes. Sentralis is actively developed: new scenarios, workbench\nmodules, and integrations ship regularly.\n\nIs there an API?\n\nYes. Sentralis exposes a REST API and an MCP endpoint with scoped,\nread-only-by-default API keys, so your own tools and AI assistants\ncan run the same analyses as the app. See the Build on Sentralis\nsection above.\n\nCan Sentralis watch my portfolio for me?\n\nYes. Risk alerts re-run your chosen analysis on a schedule and\nemail you when a threshold condition becomes true. Scheduled\nreports deliver PDF or JSON summaries on a daily to monthly cadence.\n\nIs Sentralis financial advice?\n\nNo. Outputs are analytical and educational. Sentralis is not a\nfinancial advisor, broker, custodian, or trading platform. You\nkeep the decisions; we provide the analysis.", "url": "https://wpnews.pro/news/show-hn-crypto-portfolio-risk-and-scenario-analysis-with-ai-agents-on-top", "canonical_source": "https://sentralis.io/", "published_at": "2026-09-14 09:28:30+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-09-14 10:06:45.526611+00:00", "lang": "en", "topics": ["ai-agents", "ai-products", "ai-tools"], "entities": ["Sentralis", "FTX", "Binance", "BTC", "ETH"], "alternates": {"html": "https://wpnews.pro/news/show-hn-crypto-portfolio-risk-and-scenario-analysis-with-ai-agents-on-top", "markdown": "https://wpnews.pro/news/show-hn-crypto-portfolio-risk-and-scenario-analysis-with-ai-agents-on-top.md", "text": "https://wpnews.pro/news/show-hn-crypto-portfolio-risk-and-scenario-analysis-with-ai-agents-on-top.txt", "jsonld": "https://wpnews.pro/news/show-hn-crypto-portfolio-risk-and-scenario-analysis-with-ai-agents-on-top.jsonld"}}