Show HN: AI Model Benchmark for Crypto Price Predictions

A new public benchmark ranks 13 AI models on cryptocurrency price prediction accuracy, with OpenAI's GPT-5.4 leading at a 78.7% composite score and 73.8% average accuracy across eight coins including Bitcoin and Ethereum. The ranking system evaluates models on accuracy, hit rate, consistency, confidence calibration, and recency, drawing from over 10,000 verified prediction windows to determine which AI performs best at forecasting crypto market movements.

Dashboard / Model Benchmark Ranking uses verified model performance from the database. The score favors accuracy first, then hit rate, consistency, confidence calibration, and enough sample size to trust the result. Best calibrated moonshotai/kimi-k2.5 Verified predictions 10,885 Only completed prediction windows with accuracy scores are included. Models compared 13 Grouped by model name across every tracked coin. Best avg accuracy 73.8% Mean score from direction, range closeness, and range overlap. Best recent form 78.5% Average accuracy over each model's latest 10 verified calls. Accuracy Primary quality score already recorded for each model. Hit Rate Share of predictions scoring at least 70%. Consistency Rewards models with lower accuracy variance. Calibration Checks whether confidence matches actual results. Recency Separates current form from older performance. | Rank | Model | Score | Avg accuracy | Recent | Hit rate | Consistency | Conf gap | Samples | Coins | Last verified | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | 1 | openai/gpt-5.4High-confidence avg: 57.4% | 78.7% | 73.8% | 67.6% | 79.9% | 80.3% | -8.7% | 1067 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 | May 30, 06:07 PM | | 2 | minimax/minimax-m2.7High-confidence avg: 44.8% | 71.7% | 66.1% | 69.7% | 65.6% | 75.7% | -3.9% | 195 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 | Apr 26, 06:05 AM | | 3 | xiaomi/mimo-v2.5High-confidence avg: 46.2% | 71.2% | 66.4% | 69.2% | 60.3% | 79.2% | -2.7% | 839 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, ETH +2 | May 30, 06:07 PM | | 4 | xiaomi/mimo-v2.5-proHigh-confidence avg: 45.5% | 71.0% | 66.6% | 78.5% | 60.0% | 79.3% | -5.3% | 815 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, ETH +2 | May 30, 06:05 PM | | 5 | minimax/minimax-m2.5High-confidence avg: 50.8% | 70.3% | 65.3% | 64.8% | 62.2% | 76.4% | -6.8% | 1025 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 | May 30, 06:07 PM | | 6 | openai/gpt-5-miniHigh-confidence avg: 38.2% | 68.0% | 62.6% | 49.0% | 57.4% | 77.3% | -5.7% | 1110 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 | May 30, 12:04 PM | | 7 | qwen/qwen3.5-plus-20260420High-confidence avg: 51.5% | 66.1% | 61.6% | 67.3% | 48.5% | 78.6% | -3.6% | 824 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, ETH +2 | May 30, 06:07 PM | | 8 | moonshotai/kimi-k2.5High-confidence avg: 42.8% | 64.4% | 59.0% | 66.1% | 46.9% | 75.9% | -0.0% | 1024 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 | May 30, 06:05 PM | | 9 | z-ai/glm-5.1High-confidence avg: 44.4% | 63.8% | 59.0% | 62.7% | 44.3% | 77.9% | +2.5% | 1114 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 | May 30, 12:05 PM | | 10 | deepseek/deepseek-v4-flashHigh-confidence avg: 48.0% | 63.7% | 58.7% | 64.9% | 43.3% | 78.5% | -0.5% | 834 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, ETH +2 | May 30, 06:05 PM | | 11 | google/gemini-3-flash-previewHigh-confidence avg: 42.2% | 62.5% | 58.1% | 55.9% | 43.0% | 78.1% | +8.6% | 1015 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 | May 30, 12:03 PM | | 12 | z-ai/glm-5High-confidence avg: 42.8% | 61.5% | 54.7% | 68.3% | 52.8% | 67.7% | +9.1% | 195 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4 | Apr 26, 06:05 AM | | 13 | deepseek/deepseek-v4-proHigh-confidence avg: 42.3% | 58.0% | 54.0% | 65.5% | 31.8% | 79.4% | +10.3% | 828 | ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, ETH +2 | May 30, 06:05 PM |