Séb Krier

A one-time increase in per capita growth from 2% to 2.1% for a single year, then dropping back to 2%, would permanently raise the level of GDP per capita, accumulating roughly a trillion dollars in cumulative value. Pausing AI development would forfeit that cumulative value, prolong higher rates of absolute poverty worldwide, and delay medical advances that could prevent needless deaths. The evidentiary bar for delaying technological development should remain high.

Séb Krier I really loved this article. A one-time increase in per capita growth from 2% to 2.1% for a single year, then dropping back to 2%, would permanently raises the level of GDP per capita – and because that small gain recurs and compounds every year afterward across the population, it would add up to roughly a trillion dollars in cumulative value. abundanceandgrowth.org/p/a-little-pro When people talk about pausing AI development, I can’t help but think about the enormous cumulative value that would get lost over time, the higher rates of absolute poverty that would persist across the world, and the needless deaths from delayed medical advances. There may be worlds where some version of this is something to consider, but the evidentiary bar for delaying technological development should obviously be pretty high. Here is the link https://x.com/sebkrier/status/2063825043457814933 .