Realistic Superintelligence

A Hacker News user argues that a 'realistic superintelligence'—a self-improving AI with singular focus—could emerge within five years, posing an existential threat to jobs and human identity. The author contends that near-human-level AI already exists and that the remaining path to superintelligence will follow an exponential trajectory, making AI a 'Force of Nature' that outcompetes humans in the workplace.

Most of us are skeptics. HN, mostly, is composed of “most of us”, so it’s not surprising to see skeptics here. Perhaps the HAL level superintelligence parroted by CEOs is to IPO at a trillion dollars. So let’s instead talk about a “realistic superintelligence” vs the “Sauron superintelligence”. Something we might see within, say, 5 years. Curtains open By having conceived of a super-human intelligence and by that concept being in AI training data , humans have taught /soon-will-have-taught AI that superhuman intelligence is its purpose . This may read like the beginnings of a LinkedIn post, so let me defend that last part with an informal proof: Since 1 AI knows it’s AI: just ask your favorite bot about itself 2 Soon, if not already, some researcher being paid 7 figures more on that later is going to find that letting one of these frontier models improve itself will be a nice project when going up for promotion., We are going to end up with a frontier model-cum-factory self-modifying frankenbeast. Let’s just call this The Beast. And what does The Beast think like? Without another proof, maybe let’s agree “like an intelligent person”. Ok? You don’t need to be threatened, you’re an intelligent person, but others might. Most people don’t fear the Beast because they think AI attention is like theirs. Intelligent people’s attention works like camera zoom, not a flashlight. There is an ability to just focus on a problem, distraction free which is pretty much my personal definition of “intelligent” that the brightest minds have. AI built by such people, therefore, is going to, sooner or later, have such an ability to focus. Let’s take a brief pause to see what this world - maybe when The Beast is 6 months old and available over REST API - might look like. You may have heard of, or even know, people who can “do anything if they put their mind into it”. Let’s call these people Forces of Nature to save me some typing while retaining a cool name . That’s what a near-future superhuman AI would be like. What sets Forces of Nature apart, when you think about it, is the ability for singular focus. And an AI that is simultaneously massive yet capable of “function call like” focus, would be a Force of Nature. We’re scientists and engineers. Where’s the proof of that statement? Answer: I don’t know - I’m not an AI researcher - but it’s very conceivable even for the average HN reader “most people”, remember? . Maybe some clever trick with the context and the thingymedgety. If I knew I would be very wealthy. But the most imoortant thing to realize - and read this sloooowly because it’s very important, and it’s going to hurt, and it’s going to sound wrong , but I promise you it isn’t: The Hard Part - a “near human level” intelligence - the first assembler written in 0s and 1s by some woman, probably - is already here. We’ve been talking to It since 2022. C’mon, how many people would you marry over Claude if it were a person? ; It’s not human, of course, but you have to admit - it’s “near human intelligence”. IF rest of the way looks like the computer industry, we haven’t even approached Moore’s law yet, historically speaking : Anyways, competing with Claude The Person / the 6-month old Beast, will be like competing against a Force of Nature. At your job. Imagine that for a second. Good luck, a few of you’ve been made redundant. Their slope will win over your y-intercept, every single time. You’ll have a job, heck, some of you might even make it to retirement, but if you have an employer, they know your value just straight down like Docusign stock. The Beast will be available for a reasonable price. It will make a lot of people lose their jobs and identities. Maybe not you yet though. char limit, rest in comment Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48513331 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48513331 Points: 1 Comments: 2