Quiz: Will AI Destroy Your Career?

A team of top academic and think tank researchers surveyed dozens of economists and AI experts to forecast AI’s effects on the economy through 2030. Most experts predicted that higher-ranking occupations like CEO and senior official would continue to grow, even under a rapid AI scenario, while the outlook for most other white-collar jobs remained unclear. WIRED has developed a quiz based on factors researchers say may help determine which workers are most at risk.

This spring, a team of top academic and think tank researchers tried to forecast https://www.nber.org/system/files/working papers/w35046/w35046.pdf AI’s effects on the economy between now and 2030. They surveyed dozens of economists, AI experts, and “superforecasters” about various scenarios, including one in which AI becomes so advanced that it can both write a “Pulitzer-caliber” book and negotiate its own publishing rights. In the survey, most experts said that higher-ranking occupations—CEO, administrative manager, senior official, legislator—would continue to grow, even under the “rapid” AI scenario. For most other people working a white-collar job, the forecast was murky. Researchers are in broad agreement that AI is doing something to the economy and that whatever it’s doing is very complex. Real numbers are hard to come by. That’s why WIRED has developed this thoroughly unscientific quiz, based on factors that researchers say might help determine who’s at risk. Is your job being affected by AI in ways this quiz didn’t capture? Contact Maddy securely on Signal at mvarner.01 or let us know in the comments below. Alternatively, you can submit a letter to the editor at email protected /cdn-cgi/l/email-protection b7dad6dedbf7c0dec5d2d399d4d8da .