This spring, a team of top academic and think tank researchers tried to forecast AI’s effects on the economy between now and 2030. They surveyed dozens of economists, AI experts, and “superforecasters” about various scenarios, including one in which AI becomes so advanced that it can both write a “Pulitzer-caliber” book and negotiate its own publishing rights.
In the survey, most experts said that higher-ranking occupations—CEO, administrative manager, senior official, legislator—would continue to grow, even under the “rapid” AI scenario. For most other people working a white-collar job, the forecast was murky.
Researchers are in broad agreement that AI is doing something to the economy and that whatever it’s doing is very complex. Real numbers are hard to come by. That’s why WIRED has developed this thoroughly unscientific quiz, based on factors that researchers say might help determine who’s at risk.
Is your job being affected by AI in ways this quiz didn’t capture? Contact Maddy securely on Signal at mvarner.01 or let us know in the comments below. Alternatively, you can submit a letter to the editor at [email protected].