Poll: Republican Hilton starts runoff for California governor against Democrat Becerra in a deep hole

A new poll from the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies shows Republican Steve Hilton trailing Democrat Xavier Becerra by 21 points among registered voters ahead of California's November gubernatorial runoff. Becerra leads Hilton 52% to 31%, with 17% undecided, and holds advantages across all demographic groups and regions except the North Coast and Sierra. The poll underscores the steep challenge Hilton faces in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by 20 percentage points in voter registration.

Getting your Trinity Audio //trinityaudio.ai player ready...While Republican Steve Hilton clinched a runoff spot in California’s primary governor race this week https://www.mercurynews.com/2026/06/09/its-official-becerra-hilton-move-onto-november-governors-election/ , he faces long odds of becoming the state’s next governor, according to a poll released Thursday https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4p03f9rh main that found him far behind Democrat Xavier Becerra as the two head toward the deciding vote in November. The poll by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies found 52% of the state’s registered voters support Becerra, while Hilton was the choice of 31% and 17% were undecided. Becerra led Hilton among both men and women, all age groups and races, and in every region of the state except the North Coast and the Sierra. “Xavier Becerra’s lead makes it increasingly likely that California will elect its first Latino Governor in November, “ said IGS Co-Director G. Cristina Mora. “In a state with a long-standing Latino plurality whose electoral and financial power is only recently becoming more widely recognized, the potential election of Becerra reflects in part decades of Latino organizing that has built coalitions across communities, not just mobilized one constituency.” California Gov. Romualdo Pacheco https://governors.library.ca.gov/12-Pacheco.html was the state’s first of Mexican ancestry, according to the state’s Governor’s Gallery https://governors.library.ca.gov/ . A Republican, he was elected Lieutenant Governor and in 1875 served 10 months as governor after Gov. Newton Booth left office to represent the state in the U.S. Senate. The poll released Thursday was conducted May 19-24, before voting was completed in the June 2 primary election. It surveyed 8,578 registered California voters, 5,472 of whom were considered likely primary voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 2 percentage points. Berkeley IGS noted that Becerra’s 20-percentage-point lead over Hilton reflects the fact that Democrats outnumber Republicans in voter registration in the state by 20 percentage points, “giving Democratic candidates a huge advantage in general elections.” Hilton’s campaign had no immediate comment on the poll. He was in Los Angeles on Thursday with Gloria Romero, a Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor who advanced this week to the November election, where she will face Democrat Fiona Ma https://www.mercurynews.com/2026/06/02/lieutenant-governor-california-race-results-june-2026/ . The pair were at a Hispanic-community event focused on affordability and other issues, according to his campaign. In a statement Tuesday, after The Associated Press projected Hilton had edged out billionaire progressive Democrat Tom Steyer to advance to the November election against Becerra, Hilton said it is “an incredible honor to be chosen by Californians to lead the movement for change in the greatest state in the greatest nation on earth.” Hilton called his opponent Becerra, who served as health secretary in Democratic President Joe Biden’s administration and before that as a California attorney general, legislator and congressional representative, a career politician who would not advance policies that would fix the state’s problems with high costs, underperforming schools and other issues. “I can’t wait to get started on the most high-energy campaign this state has ever seen,” Hilton said. “Change is coming ” Becerra said in a social media post Tuesday, “the challenges facing California won’t wait, and neither will we. Let’s carry this momentum all the way to November.” The Berkeley poll found that both Becerra and Hilton are popular with registered voters of their parties, with more than four in five showing support. Among voters who register with no party preference or other parties, Becerra led Hilton 43% to 28%, with 29% undecided. The poll also found the same percentage of likely primary voters held unfavorable views of Becerra as did of Hilton, 38%. But 44% held favorable views of Becerra compared with 31% who held favorable views of Hilton. Steyer, a former hedge fund founder who left his company to pursue environmental activism and politics, was viewed favorably by 39% of voters but unfavorably by 43%, the poll found. President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Hilton, which helped boost him over fellow Republican Chad Bianco in the primary, may weigh on the Republican in November, the poll suggested. While the president remains popular among the state’s Republicans, the poll found only 29% of California registered voters overall approve of Trump’s job performance and 69% disapprove. Becerra signaled in a social media post Thursday the president’s unpopularity will be a point he’ll stress in the November campaign, suggesting his opponent will “hand Sacramento to Donald Trump.” On Wednesday, Becerra reposted a Hilton post thanking Trump for his support in the primary campaign, and said: “All you need to know.”