arXiv:2609.18861v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Adaptive learning systems commonly formulate learning path planning as Exercise-Centric (EC) recommendation, where the next step is inferred from item-level interaction logs. Evaluating goal-oriented guidance additionally requires explicit learner goals and curriculum-scale prerequisites: learners with similar exercise records may need different paths toward their targets. We therefore study Knowledge-Centric (KC) personalized learning path planning, where a planner must reason over learner profiles, mastery states, and prerequisite knowledge structures to decide which textbook, unit, and concept should be studied next. To support this setting, we introduce PersonaPath, a benchmark that pairs 2,000 fine-grained learner personas with a hierarchical knowledge graph of 347 textbooks, 1,751 units, and 4,092 concepts across 77 subjects. We evaluate representative LLMs on PersonaPath. Results show that even the strongest LLM reaches only a 29.5% final pass rate in Basic Education, and that the main bottleneck lies in adaptivity, where no model exceeds 44.7% in tailoring paths to individual learners.
Deriving neural scaling laws from the statistics of natural language