{"slug": "openai-s-ad-business-is-on-pace-to-miss-its-own-forecast-by-90-analyst-says", "title": "OpenAI's Ad Business Is on Pace to Miss Its Own Forecast by 90%, Analyst Says", "summary": "OpenAI's ad business is projected to miss its own five-year revenue forecast by 90%, according to Emarketer. The AI lab forecast $2.5 billion in ad revenue this year and $100 billion by 2030, but Emarketer estimates standalone chatbots will generate less than $1 billion in 2025 and only $5.41 billion by 2030.", "body_md": "OpenAI’s ad business is on pace to fall short of the company’s own five-year revenue forecast by 90%, according to Emarketer.\n\nThe [AI](https://www.adweek.com/category/artificial-intelligence-2/) lab has projected $2.5 billion in ad revenue this year and $100 billion by 2030. Emarketer’s data finds that standalone chatbots like ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot app, Google AI Mode, and Amazon Alexa for Shopping (formerly Rufus) in U.S, will generate less than $1 billion in ad revenue this year, and just $5.41 billion by 2030.\n\nOpenAI began its ad trial in February. Two months in, the AI lab made headlines touting those same projections.\n\nThe forecast assumes OpenAI captures search ad budgets en masse from traditional search ad sellers, dominates a fully mature chatbot ad market, and outperforms every ad format in history–all at once.", "url": "https://wpnews.pro/news/openai-s-ad-business-is-on-pace-to-miss-its-own-forecast-by-90-analyst-says", "canonical_source": "https://www.adweek.com/media/openais-ad-business-is-on-pace-to-miss-its-own-forecast-by-90-analyst-says/", "published_at": "2026-07-14 05:21:02+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-07-14 05:48:23.836526+00:00", "lang": "en", "topics": ["artificial-intelligence", "ai-products", "ai-startups"], "entities": ["OpenAI", "Emarketer", "ChatGPT", "Microsoft Copilot", "Google AI Mode", "Amazon Alexa for Shopping"], "alternates": {"html": "https://wpnews.pro/news/openai-s-ad-business-is-on-pace-to-miss-its-own-forecast-by-90-analyst-says", "markdown": "https://wpnews.pro/news/openai-s-ad-business-is-on-pace-to-miss-its-own-forecast-by-90-analyst-says.md", "text": "https://wpnews.pro/news/openai-s-ad-business-is-on-pace-to-miss-its-own-forecast-by-90-analyst-says.txt", "jsonld": "https://wpnews.pro/news/openai-s-ad-business-is-on-pace-to-miss-its-own-forecast-by-90-analyst-says.jsonld"}}