Nvidia Earnings Give Investors a Barometer for State of AI Trade

Nvidia Corp. reports fiscal second-quarter earnings Wednesday, with Wall Street focused on CEO Jensen Huang's forward guidance as a barometer for AI spending. Analysts project revenue nearly doubled year-over-year, the fastest pace in two years, but investors are more concerned about capital spending by hyperscalers, price increases of over 15% on AI servers due to memory costs, and Nvidia's $500 billion financing partnerships with Goldman Sachs Group Inc., BlackRock Inc., and Apollo Global Management Inc., plus its $105 billion commitment to an Ohio data center leased by OpenAI. Nvidia shares are up 14% in 2026 after a seven-day losing streak that erased 7.5%.

Bloomberg -- Wall Street is eagerly anticipating Nvidia Corp.'s earnings on Wednesday afternoon, not so much for what the numbers will say about the chip giant, but for what they mean to artificial intelligence investors and the market itself. "Nvidia is the best barometer for AI spending," said Rob Conzo, chief executive officer of the Wealth Alliance, which owns Nvidia shares in several portfolios. "It will help determine if hyperscalers are still accelerating, from an infrastructure perspective, or if they're becoming more disciplined." The company's shares have been on a wild ride this year, sinking through the winter, then soaring through the spring, and bouncing around all summer. They're coming off a seven-day losing streak, matching the longest since 2019, in which they lost 7.5%. And that follows a 19% leap from late July through mid-August. All told, Nvidia is up 14% in 2026, a decent showing but still a far cry from its past performance. At this time last year, the stock had gained 34%, and in 2024 it was soaring more than 150%. The reason is hardly a secret, with investors increasingly cautious about the durability of the AI trade with inflation remaining high, interest rates rising and geopolitical risks all over the place, whether it's the US's military and economic war with Iran or its trade war with Canada. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index suffered its worst month in more than a year in July, falling 6.6% as investors dumped the shares of companies exposed to the AI buildout amid concerns about how much longer the heavy spending would last. But since its July 29 trough, the index has regained much of that lost ground, led by memory and storage companies like Sandisk Corp. and chipmakers such as Marvell Technology Inc. Wall Street expects Nvidia to deliver stellar results for the fiscal second quarter, which ended July 31. Analysts project that revenue nearly doubled from a year ago, which would be the fastest pace in two years, as did net income, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That, however, isn't what the market is focused on. Rather, investors want to hear what Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang has to say about capital spending by its biggest customers, future demand and a spate of new financing deals that involve Nvidia. Price increases will also be top of mind after some of the company's customers were told that the cost of servers with its AI chips will rise more than 15% in some cases, due to surging memory costs. "This will be a very interesting report, but it isn't so much about the numbers," Conzo said. "The forward guidance discussions will be far more in view." Earlier this month, Nvidia said it's partnering with Wall Street firms including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., BlackRock Inc. and Apollo Global Management Inc. to provide $500 billion in financing for AI infrastructure. Nvidia also agreed to spend as much as $105 billion to back a data center campus in Ohio that will be leased by OpenAI. "They're going to need to discuss those two big partnerships or agreements in good detail and sort of calm the market's fears around the circularity of financing," said Shaon Baqui, a senior equity analyst at Janus Henderson, which holds a substantial position in Nvidia. The big questions from investors are how much of Nvidia's revenue is being driven by its own financing and if it's creating or bringing forward demand. Huang's comments alone likely won't be enough to resolve some of the issues the market is having with AI investments at the moment, according to Daniel Pilling, portfolio manager at Sands Capital Management, which owns the stock. "It's going to be a really important quarter for them, not because of what they're doing on the balance sheet, but what they're doing off the balance sheet," said Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management, which holds Nvidia shares. "It effectively makes Jensen Huang kind of like the pope of AI. He gets to bless any of these deals." Even with a market capitalization of more than $5 trillion, the biggest in the world, Nvidia's equity valuation has been steadily eroding this year. At roughly 19 times earnings expected over the next 12 months, the stock is close to the cheapest it has been since late 2018, before AI exploded and when the chipmaker's market value was less than $100 billion. "Nvidia isn't the most exciting part of the market, or even the AI trade, anymore," said Randy Hare director of equity research at Huntington National Bank, which owns the stock. "Right now the tightness is in the memory space, the optical area, energy. Momentum is shifting from semis to other parts of infrastructure, and from there it could shift to hyperscalers again." In terms of trading into the earnings, Nvidia shares haven't performed well after its results over the last few quarters, falling the day after five of its last six reports, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The options market is pricing in a roughly 5% swing in either direction. Of course, the shares could get a boost from a strong report and forecasts that calm investors' nerves, potentially reinvigorating the broader AI trade. Wall Street will be listening for updates on Nvidia's Vera Rubin and Blackwell chip sales as well as its outlook for gross margins. "Their stock in my view is at a bit of a nexus, like a bit of a turning point," said Melissa Otto, head of technology, media and telecommunications research at Visible Alpha. "We're going to get a lot more visibility, hopefully, and commentary around Rubin and the performance of Blackwell." Tech Chart of the Day Top Tech Stories Meta Platforms Inc. and state attorneys general have discussed a possible mid-trial settlement of a blockbuster case accusing the company of deliberately designing Facebook and Instagram to addict teens, people familiar with the matter said. OpenAI said that its new Jalapeno chips performed better than Nvidia's current lineup during testing, underscoring the company's progress developing AI processors in-house. An OpenAI executive helping to oversee the AI developer's data center buildout, Chris Malone, has left the company. SoftBank Group Corp. is talking with investment banks about a potential $10 billion to $20 billion bond offering to help refinance a loan for its investment in US tech giant OpenAI, according to people familiar with the matter. Apple announced upgraded Mac mini and Mac Studio desktop computers, giving the in-demand machines major processor upgrades. Earnings Due Earnings Postmarket: Earnings Premarket: Photronics Inc. PLAB US Earnings Postmarket: Nvidia Corp. NVDA US Crowdstrike Holdings Inc. CRWD US Everpure Inc. P US HP Inc. HPQ US Lantronix Inc. LTRX US Nutanix Inc. NTNX US Okta Inc. OKTA US Ooma Inc. OOMA US Salesforce Inc. CRM US Synopsys Inc. SNPS US --With assistance from Subrat Patnaik and David Watkins.