Via robinhood.com
The AI cloud infrastructure company beat analyst expectations on both revenue and EBITDA while reaffirming its full-year guidance of $3B to $3.4B.
Nebius Group, the Amsterdam-headquartered AI cloud infrastructure company trading on NASDAQ under NBIS, delivered Q2 2026 results that came in above what Wall Street was expecting. Revenue and adjusted EBITDA both topped consensus estimates, and the company held firm on its full-year 2026 outlook.
Analysts had pegged Q2 revenue at roughly $570 million. The actual number came in higher than that, representing growth of more than 454% compared to the approximately $105 million Nebius generated in Q2 2025.
From losses to profitability at speed #
The beat follows an already eye-popping Q1 2026, when Nebius posted $399 million in revenue. That figure represented a 684% year-over-year jump from $50.9 million. Perhaps more importantly, the company flipped its adjusted EBITDA from a loss of $53.7 million in Q1 2025 to a positive $129.5 million in Q1 2026.
AI cloud services now account for nearly 98% of Nebius’s total revenue. Its annualized revenue run-rate was approaching $1.92 billion as of Q1 2026, and Q2’s beat pushes that number meaningfully higher.
Aggressive capex, aggressive targets #
Nebius reaffirmed its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $3 billion to $3.4 billion. Hitting the midpoint of that range would require the company to average roughly $800 million per quarter in the back half of the year.
Nebius’s data centers are purpose-built for AI training and inference workloads rather than retrofitted general-purpose facilities.
Short sellers and stock volatility #
Despite the strong operational results, Nebius’s stock has been volatile. The combination of heavy capital spending and substantial short interest has created a turbulent trading environment. Among the notable bears: Michael Burry, the investor made famous by his bet against subprime mortgages in the 2008 financial crisis, has taken a short position against the company.
With 98% of revenue coming from AI cloud services, there’s no diversification cushion if AI spending plateaus or shifts to in-house solutions at major tech companies.
The Q2 results will be formally released on August 12, 2026, ahead of market open, followed by a conference call at 8:00 a.m. ET.
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