# Musk Urges Patience on Optimus and Robotaxi > Source: > Published: 2026-06-20 14:08:32.682017+00:00 # Musk Urges Patience on Optimus and Robotaxi In a Q1 2026 earnings recap published by 24/7 Wall St. via Yahoo Finance, Tesla CEO Elon Musk warned investors that early Optimus and Robotaxi ramps will start 'quite slow.' Tesla reported $22.39 billion in Q1 2026 revenue (+16% year over year), beating non-GAAP EPS estimates at $0.41 vs. $0.3481 expected. CFO Vaibhav Taneja confirmed over $25 billion in 2026 capital expenditures targeting robotics and autonomy, while operating expenses rose 37% on AI R&D. Musk said of Optimus: 'it is literally impossible to predict, except that I think it will be quite slow for us as we iron out the 10,000-plus unique items.' Prediction markets (Polymarket) assign 15% odds to an Optimus consumer release by year-end 2026 and 3% to a California Robotaxi launch by June 30. ### What happened Tesla reported $22.39 billion in Q1 2026 revenue, up 16% year over year, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 beating the $0.3481 consensus estimate, per 24/7 Wall St. analysis (Joel South, published via Yahoo Finance, June 20, 2026). Despite strong financials, CEO Elon Musk spent much of Tesla's Q1 earnings call tempering near-term expectations for two flagship AI and robotics programs: the Optimus humanoid robot and the autonomous Robotaxi ride-hailing service. Additional Q1 detail per 24/7 Wall St.: Services and Other revenue grew 42%, while Energy segment revenue fell 12%. ### Optimus production timeline Musk confirmed Optimus production will begin at Tesla's Fremont factory in late July or August 2026, after the Model S/X line shuts down in early May following a 14-year production run. He framed the four-month factory conversion as unprecedented but was candid about output uncertainty. Per Electrek's April 22 earnings call coverage (Fred Lambert), Musk said: 'It will move as fast as the least lucky, slowest, dumbest part in the entire 10,000. It is impossible to predict these things.' He provided no production volume target for 2026. A second Optimus factory is under construction at Giga Texas, with production targeted around summer 2027. ### Track record and competition Per Electrek, Musk's January 2025 prediction of roughly 10,000 Optimus robots that year went unmet; he acknowledged in January 2026 that zero Optimus robots were doing useful work at Tesla. Humanoid robot competitors are not standing still: Boston Dynamics is shipping its electric Atlas to Hyundai factories and plans a 30,000-unit annual production facility; Figure AI (valued at $39 billion) has an active pilot at BMW; Agility Robotics' Digit is commercially deployed at a Toyota warehouse. ### Robotaxi and FSD revenue Musk was similarly measured on autonomy revenue. Per 24/7 Wall St., his exact words from the call: 'I don't think unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi revenue would be super material this year, but I do think it will be material probably in a significant way next year.' Polymarket assigns 3% probability to a California Robotaxi launch by June 30, 2026 and 15% probability to an Optimus consumer release by year-end 2026. ### Capital commitments Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja confirmed the spending scale: 'our current expectation for 2026 is over $25 billion of CapEx,' covering the Fremont Optimus line, the Giga Texas Optimus factory, Cybercab production ramp, and a $3 billion semiconductor research fab. Operating expenses rose 37% on AI R&D. Free cash flow is expected negative for the remaining three quarters of 2026. ### What to watch The near-term milestones are concrete: whether Fremont ships Optimus units in Q3 or Q4 2026, whether those units perform useful factory tasks, and whether Robotaxi expands beyond limited supervised pilots. Tesla shares were up 2% since the April 22 earnings call but down 12% year to date at time of the 24/7 Wall St. report. ## Scoring Rationale A well-sourced recap of Tesla's Q1 2026 earnings call with verified verbatim Musk quotes, confirmed $25B+ capex commitments to AI and robotics, and corroborated prediction-market odds - solid for AI/DS/ML practitioners tracking humanoid robotics and autonomy investment. Score adjusted down from 6.7: this is a secondary analyst recap of an April 22 earnings call published two months after the event, not breaking news. Practice with real Ride-Hailing data 90 SQL & Python problems · 15 industry datasets 250 free problems · No credit card [See all Ride-Hailing problems](/problems/datasets/mobility)