Micron Stock Plunged 28.7% in July, Then Jumped 10% in a Single Day

Micron Technology Inc. shares plunged 28.7% in July after a 600% gain over 12 months, then jumped 10% in a single day in early August, reflecting investor uncertainty about the AI memory trade. The company reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $41.46 billion, up from $9.30 billion a year earlier, and guided current-quarter revenue to $50 billion, with record targets driven by AI demand. New risks include Apple Inc.'s preliminary talks with China's ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) about supplying memory chips for devices sold in China, and SK Hynix's $38.15 billion investment in new memory fabs, which could signal future supply increases.

Micron's July selloff was real, but the cleaner story is simpler: investors are no longer paying any price for AI memory growth, even when Micron's own numbers still look huge. Micron Technology has become the kind of stock that can make a strong business look shaky in a bad tape. The shares fell hard through July after a spectacular first-half run, then bounced sharply in early August as investors tried to decide whether the AI memory trade had cooled or merely stopped moving in a straight line. That distinction matters. If you own a stock after a 600% gain over 12 months, according to Barron's, a 10% drop in a month doesn't tell you demand has cracked. It tells you expectations have become brutal. Every fresh headline about SK Hynix, Samsung or China's ChangXin Memory Technologies now lands on Micron's stock before it lands on Micron's income statement. Start with what actually happened. MarketBeat's data showed Micron trading down 4.3% on July 13, touching $902.60 and closing near $937, as memory names sold off. Reuters reported the same day that SK Hynix's Seoul shares fell more than 15% after its Nasdaq debut, while Samsung also sank and South Korea's Kospi triggered a trading halt. That was not a Micron earnings miss. It was a sector panic. The Numbers Still Back the Boom Micron's own June report was not soft. The company said fiscal third-quarter revenue reached $41.46 billion, compared with $9.30 billion a year earlier, and non-GAAP earnings came in at $25.11 a share. For the current quarter, Micron guided revenue to $50 billion, plus or minus $1 billion, and non-GAAP EPS to $31, plus or minus $1. Those are record targets. Look at the mix. Micron's Cloud Memory unit brought in $13.77 billion in the quarter, and its Core Data Center unit added $11.52 billion. Together, those businesses supplied more than $25 billion of quarterly revenue. That's the AI story in plain numbers, not in slogans. The company also said HBM4 was already in high-volume shipments for its lead customer's platform, with qualification samples sent to multiple end customers. Development of HBM4E is underway, with volume production expected in calendar 2027. You don't need to love the valuation to understand why investors still care. Memory is no longer just a cyclical PC and handset story. AI servers are pulling it into the center of the capital spending race. Frankly, that is also why the stock is so difficult to price. When a commodity business starts looking like a scarce AI infrastructure supplier, investors tend to pay first and ask about the cycle later. Then the cycle taps them on the shoulder. China Is the Cleaner Risk The newest pressure point is not July's selloff. It is China. Barron's reported on August 10 that Micron slipped 0.3% to $875.03 after reports that Apple had held preliminary talks with ChangXin Memory Technologies about supplying memory chips for devices sold in China, subject to U.S. government approval. Counterpoint Research put CXMT's DRAM revenue share at 7% in the second quarter. That isn't nothing. But it is not the same threat as a Chinese supplier suddenly taking over AI memory. Barron's also noted that CXMT is still more of a concern if it makes deeper progress in high-bandwidth memory, the type used in AI servers. SemiAnalysis projects CXMT's global HBM wafer supply share rising from 1% in 2025 to 12% in 2028. That's a real number to watch, not a reason to pretend Micron's current quarter disappeared. SK Hynix adds another complication. Barron's reported that Micron fell 1.3% to $870.39 on Friday after SK Hynix approved a $38.15 billion investment in new memory fabrication plants. The market read that as future supply. You can see why. Memory investors have lived through enough oversupply cycles to know how quickly good pricing can turn. But fabs don't appear overnight. Micron's own $100 billion New York project is not expected to start production until 2030, according to the same Barron's report. That timing is the whole argument. AI demand is here now, while new capacity still takes years, money and a lot of cleanroom space. The next earnings report needs to prove that pricing and data center demand are still carrying the load. If Micron guides above its own $50 billion revenue target, the July pullback will look like a reset after a wild run. If the company hints that DRAM or NAND pricing is slowing faster than expected, the market will not be patient. Micron's stock stopped going straight up - that doesn't make the business broken. But you shouldn't confuse a strong business with a cheap stock either. At around $875, after a historic rally and a messy July, Micron is trading less like a normal chipmaker and more like a live vote on whether AI infrastructure spending can keep outrunning memory supply. Also read: Silver Climbs Near $65 as Weak Jobs Data Meets a China Supply Squeeze https://startupfortune.com/silver-climbs-near-65-as-weak-jobs-data-meets-a-china-supply-squeeze/ • Microsoft Orders Over 300,000 Maia 300 AI Chips From TSMC For 2027 https://startupfortune.com/microsoft-orders-over-300000-maia-300-ai-chips-from-tsmc-for-2027/ • JANA Partners Presses Fiserv's Board After a Brutal Earnings Reset https://startupfortune.com/jana-partners-presses-fiservs-board-after-a-brutal-earnings-reset/