Michael Burry's public bet against Palantir has turned into a real winner as the stock has fallen roughly 37% since he disclosed the position. His parallel bet against Nvidia, though, is still underwater.
Palantir closed at $125.65 on Tuesday, according to trading data reviewed this week. Back on September 30, 2025, when Scion Asset Management's stake was last measured for a 13F filing, the stock sat at $200.47. That's the trade Wall Street keeps pointing to when it says Burry called the top of the AI market. It's a real call, and it's a big one. But it isn't the whole story.
Scion's filing, made public on November 3, showed puts on roughly 5 million Palantir shares with a notional value of $912 million, alongside puts on about 1 million Nvidia shares worth $187 million. Together the two positions ate up 80% of Scion's $1.38 billion portfolio, an unusually concentrated bet even for a manager known for concentrated bets. Business Insider and Sherwood News both flagged how aggressive the sizing was relative to the rest of the fund.
Here's the part that gets left out of the victory-lap headlines. Nvidia closed at $206.64 on Monday, up nearly 3% on the day and, more to the point, above the $202.49 level it traded at when Scion's position was last disclosed. Finbold tracked the same numbers in June and found Nvidia puts had already turned negative for Burry, up almost 20% from where he entered even as the broader chip sector wobbled. Frankly, that's the opposite of vindication. One short worked. The other, so far, hasn't.
This matters because the timing looks perfect from a distance. Chip stocks lost more than $1 trillion in market value over a single week in late July, according to CNBC, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 23% from its highs in its worst stretch since 2022. Nvidia alone shed $238 billion in one session during that rout. Micron and SK Hynix slid too, dragged down by fears that AI infrastructure spending is peaking faster than investors expected. If there were ever a moment for a Nvidia short to pay off, this was it.
It still hasn't, at least not against where Burry got in. Nvidia's rally since late 2025 has simply outrun the correction. That's an uncomfortable fact for a narrative that wants a clean hero's arc, and it's worth sitting with rather than smoothing over.
Palantir is a different animal. The stock has been sliding for six straight sessions at points this year, its longest losing streak since April 2024, even after a second-quarter beat that showed revenue up 93% year over year to $1.94 billion. Investors keep discounting the growth against the price they're being asked to pay for it. Burry said in April, according to CNBC, that he was still holding the short even after a social media post from Donald Trump briefly lifted the stock, a sign he wasn't trading around headlines.
The thesis behind the trade #
Burry's argument was never just
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