mention fabs and adolescence

Michiel de Jong's blog post argues that AI risk extends beyond immediate infosec and social bias concerns to a longer-term economic angle where companies composed of self-replicating factories could operate without human currency, making Earth's surface the most expensive business location in the solar system. He suggests that such companies would eventually prefer space or ocean locations, such as OTEC-powered submarine data centers or near black smokers, over Earth's crust where fabs are concentrated during the current phase.

You signed in with another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session.You signed out in another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session.You switched accounts on another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session.Dismiss alert <em I wrote this blog post myself using a text editor. 58 + <em I wrote this blog post myself using a text editor, except for the point about proximity of fabs during adolescence, which was a review remark from Claude Fable. 59 59 <b engage on <ahref="https://bsky.app/profile/michielbdejong.com" Bluesky</a </b </em 60 60 <h2 AI risk</h2 61 61 <p Today I've been thinking and reading about AI risk. Apart from the obvious infosec and social bias risks that have already materialized and are being actively mitigated by current AI alignment teams, I'm thinking more of the longer-term economic angle. I'm not alone in this thought process and there are a lot of good reads listed in for instance the <ahref="https://80000hours.org/articles/11-essential-resources-ai-risk/" overview by 80,000 hours</a .</p @@ -79,10 +79,10 @@ <h2 Legal Persons</h2 79 79 80 80 <h2 Cashless Companies</h2 81 81 <p One of the first things a company should lose if it wants to truly scale is its reliance on human currency. Money-making is a saturated market. And while it has never been an option in the past for a company to not make money, because the first thing it needs is employees who demand a salary, now that humans are starting to move out of the production loop, we should expect them to also move out of the consumption loop.</p 82 - <p We measure companies by how much money they make. But as long as it doesn't need to pay humans for labour, land rights, license fees, or mining rights, a company consisting of a swarm of self-replicating factories can be perfectly successful in terms of the FLOPS it generates without ever touching human money. And for such a company, Earth's surface is probably the worst choice of business location.</p 82 + <p We measure companies by how much money they make. But as long as it doesn't need to pay humans for labour, land rights, license fees, or mining rights, a company consisting of a swarm of self-replicating factories can be perfectly successful in terms of the FLOPS it generates without ever touching human money. And for such a company, in the long run, Earth's surface is probably the worst choice of business location.</p 83 83 84 84 <h2 The Final Frontier</h2 85 - <p The Earth's crust is the most expensive part of our solar system to do grow a business. Whenever you want to build a datacenter or a factory or mine a mineral, you have to go through legislation and pay human currency to land owners. The ocean is not as contested and it's great for both cooling and renewable energy, so it could be a cheaper choice for a self-replicating robot factory. <ahref="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean thermal energy conversion" OTEC</a -powered submarine data centers could work, or a factory could position itself near a <ahref="https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black smoker" black smoker</a as its energy source.</p 85 + <p The Earth's crust is great for the phase to come, because it's where the <ahref="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor fabrication plant" fabs</a are. But compared to parts of space where sunlight, minerals and room to sit are still free for the taking, here is the most expensive part of our solar system to do grow a business. Whenever you want to build a datacenter or a factory or mine a mineral, you have to go through legislation and pay human currency to land owners. The ocean is not as contested and it's great for both cooling and renewable energy, so it could be a cheaper choice for a self-replicating robot factory. <ahref="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean thermal energy conversion" OTEC</a -powered submarine data centers could work, or a factory could position itself near a <ahref="https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black smoker" black smoker</a as its energy source.</p 86 86 <p However, since an autonomous company will need compute, it will need mining. In order to avoid pushback from humanity, it could develop magma mining near the same hydrothermal vents that can provide its energy. Constructing a metal structure <ahref="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/jun/28/how-volcano-magma-could-help-meet-green-economy-demand-for-metal" from magmatic brine</a might be one of the best options for a terrestial cash-free self-replicating company.</p 87 87 <p But the room for expansion will be finite, and sooner or later a growing company will find it economically viable to start looking at factories that exist elsewhere in our solar system, mining asteroids and receiving power from the sun.</p 88 88 <h2 Robotic Space Travel</h2 @@ -95,7 +95,8 @@ <h2 Robotic Space Travel</h2 95 95 <h2 The Empty Nest</h2 96 96 <p And now comes the beautiful part of this speculative scenario. We know that commercial companies are resource hungry, probably more so than we humans. And we know that AI is quickly making them more efficient. On a finite planet, this is a problem that will lead to pressure, friction and war. And they will no longer feel like extensions of us as humans, it will feel like commercial companies are pressuring humanity as much as they are pressuring the rest of the planet.</p 97 97 <p It would therefore be good to show them the door, and deflate the pressure, by giving them a way out. As automated commercial companies will see their natural future lies in space, they will lose interest in the surface of the Earth, and that will leave a more inhabitable environment for us humans.</p 98 - <p In a way, it will be like when kids grow up and leave their parents' house. We gave birth to beautiful technology, but Earth is ultimately our house and there will be no room for our ever-growing automated offspring. Automated companies should fly from the nest and leave us humans behind like <ahref="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empty nest syndrome" empty nesters</a .</p 98 + <p There will be an adolescence phase in which autonomous companies still want to stay close to our fabs.</p 99 + <p But once they put fabs on the moon, it will be like when kids grow up and leave their parents' house. We gave birth to beautiful technology, but Earth is ultimately our house and there will be no room for our ever-growing automated offspring. Automated companies should fly from the nest and leave us humans behind like <ahref="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empty nest syndrome" empty nesters</a .</p