# Markets Confident OpenAI Releases Its Next AI Model in Weeks > Source: > Published: 2026-08-18 19:15:26+00:00 #### In brief - OpenAI said Aug. 7 it slowed Astra's rollout after internal tests showed cyber capabilities it can't rule out as "Critical". - Prediction market traders are betting big on an Astra release by Sept. 30. - The model, reportedly OpenAI's GPT-6, hasn't been given a public date. Prediction market traders are pretty sure OpenAI is cooking, and it's next big AI model could be coming sooner than you might think. A market for the most likely release date of OpenAI’s upcoming model Astra, the company's internal name for GPT-6, gives a 59% chance of launching by September 15 and roughly 72% by month's end on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/openais-astra-released-by-20260801214557729). That confidence runs against OpenAI's own move earlier this month. On August 7, the company said it had [slowed Astra's releas](https://decrypt.co/375210/openai-pause-astra-ai-model-critical-cyber-capabilities)e, citing cybersecurity risks. OpenAI's own [preparedness disclosure](https://openai.com/index/responding-next-frontier-critical-cyber-capabilities/) was blunter: internal evaluations of Astra showed "significant advancements in agentic coding and cybersecurity," and the company concluded it "cannot rule out critical cyber capabilities" under its safety framework. A model at OpenAI's Critical threshold could, by the company's own definition, find and build working zero-day exploits across many hardened systems without human help. The Polymarket odds still lean toward a near-term drop. The Sept. 15 contract shows 59% at about $27,600 in volume; the Sept. 30 contract sits near 72% on $35,600. A separate "which week" market favors an August 31–September 6 window at 39%. OpenAI has no release date, so the contracts resolve on the company's own announcement. On Myriad, a prediction market maintained by *Decrypt*’s parent company Dastan, the larger odds point to [September 30](https://myriad.markets/events/gpt-6-released-by-a0f3b817) as the most likely deadline for GPT-6. Myriad traders place 31% odds on the end of September, with only 19% odds on September 15, and the longshot bet of August 21 at just 5% (but rising). The gap between OpenAI's caution and trader optimism isn't unusual for this beat. Prediction markets hit [$2 billion](https://decrypt.co/345033/prediction-markets-all-time-high-trading-volume) in weekly volume this year as Polymarket's lead widened, and OpenAI launch dates are a recurring favorite. Back in July, [odds of a public GPT-6 release](https://decrypt.co/374472/openai-gpt-6-will-arrive-september-prediction-market) by September 30 were at around 78%. OpenAI's post said Astra "was not involved in exploiting Hugging Face," distancing the model from a recent incident as it weighed how to ship something it says it still can't fully safety-test.