The DeFi Report, a cryptocurrency and macroeconomics analysis company, announced in its latest assessment of Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market that the bear market has now entered its final phase. The analysis stated that approximately 85% of the bear cycle is behind us, and the remaining 15%, which will determine the market’s fate, largely depends on global macroeconomic developments.
According to the company’s on-chain cost base analysis, the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin is exhibiting movements quite similar to previous cycle bases in terms of on-chain data. However, it was noted that spot and futures trading volumes have fallen to their lowest levels since the end of 2019, which was described as a clear indication of a “time-spread capitulation” process taking place on the chain. Furthermore, asset sales by miners, redirecting their energy capacity to AI firms, were also cited as factors increasing pressure on the market.
The analysis stated that whether Bitcoin will fall to the “deep value” region of $55,000 and below will depend on macroeconomic liquidity conditions in the coming weeks. The fact that US 30-year Treasury yields have surpassed 5.2%, reaching a 20-year high, and the Fed’s move towards higher interest rates were highlighted as key factors putting pressure on risky assets.
Another notable development in global markets was the covert liquidity measures implemented by the US Treasury Department and the Bank of Japan to strengthen the Yen. Analysts described this mechanism, which allows foreign institutions to provide liquidity by collateralizing US bonds instead of selling them, as “QE Light” (Quantitative Easing). The 15% increase in gold prices due to this covert liquidity injection and the impact of global risks suggests that investors are positioning themselves against inflationary pressures, and a similar liquidity flow could shift to Bitcoin in the future.
Analysts evaluating technical levels and strategies consider the 200-week moving average, currently at $63,800, a critical threshold. If Bitcoin closes the month above the $68,700-$69,800 range, the scenario that the bottom has been reached will gain strength.
*This is not investment advice.