The explosive popularity of prediction markets, spearheaded by Polymarket and Kalshi, has shocked experts, who are warning of a surge in gambling addiction. The platforms have massively lowered the barriers to entry for problem betting, allowing practically anybody to wager their hard-earned cash on events ranging from the outcomes of deadly wars to who will win the World Cup.
Given all that controversy, maybe it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg — who excels at bringing out the absolute worst of humanity — has directed his staff to create a similar betting app of their own, dubbed “Arena.”
As two employees with knowledge of the matter told the New York Times, users wouldn’t be wagering real money, relying instead on a “video game-like points system.” That makes it an even more baffling endeavor, considering the promise of getting rich quick is the only real reason prediction markets have become as popular as they are now.
Meta didn’t rule out allowing users to bet real money later down the road. However, the insider sources cautioned that the app is still in development and may never see the light of day.
It’s only the latest example of Zuckerberg desperately scrounging for new ideas to keep relevant in an industry that’s rapidly changing. Its social media apps have long struggled with relevancy and user growth, despite still reaching billions of users around the world.
Meanwhile, Meta’s graveyard of ill-conceived products has become crowded, from a botched cryptocurrency and paying celebrities millions of dollars to turn them into AI chatbots to cartoonized “metaverse” worlds filled with screaming children.
Beyond gambling, Meta is also trying to get an AI photo generating app off the ground, according to the NYT‘s sources. But whether there’s any appetite left for even more slop apps is dubious at best.
It’s not even the first time Meta has dabbled in the prediction space. In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, the company launched “Forecast,” a crowdsourced prediction app that never really took off.
Nobody knows if Meta’s “Arena” app will fare any better, if it does end up launching. But without dangling the possibility of making a quick buck in front of its users’ faces — which, to be clear, isn’t something we would be encouraging in the first place — it’s likely dead on arrival anyways.
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