Liccardo: Why China is winning the war America started in Iran

One hundred days after American and Israeli missile strikes on Iran, Rep. Liccardo argues China is winning the war the U.S. started, despite America's military superiority in every engagement. China benefits from the conflict through its clean energy strategy, expanded influence over U.S. allies, erosion of the dollar's dominance, and diminished American military deterrent in Asia. The war has cost U.S. taxpayers up to $1 trillion, taken thousands of civilian lives, and left Iran's theocracy intact with control over the Strait of Hormuz and most of its missile capabilities.

Getting your Trinity Audio //trinityaudio.ai player ready...One hundred days have passed since the American and Israeli missile strikes on Iran, and Donald Trump just announced the umpteenth, likely nonexistent, “peace deal.” This gives us ample time to answer the simplistic — but not simple — question: “Who is winning this war?” My answer: China. Of course, China isn’t fighting in Iran. And yes, they’re still winning. Last week, the House of Representatives succumbed to a rare affliction of common sense: four Republicans joined me and my Democratic colleagues in approving a War Powers Resolution to end the U.S. military “excursion” in Iran. The vote reflected deep questions about whether the U.S. could accomplish its wartime objectives. To be sure, the U.S. has demonstrated its military superiority, destroying Iran’s navy and air defenses, decapitating its leadership, and prevailing in every engagement. But that’s not winning. Wars are fought for political ends, Clausewitz reminds us, not merely to harm enemies. The day of the attack, the president trumpeted imminent regime change, yet Iran’s hostile theocracy has tightened its grip, only now with a new tool of global leverage at its disposal: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran continues to control hundreds of kilograms of enriched uranium and thousands of centrifuges. Trumpian claims of having “totally destroyed” Iran’s military appear overwrought; U.S. intelligence assessments confirm that the IRGC can operate more than 90% of its missile launch sites, and still possesses more than 70% of its prewar missile stockpile. A supposedly “vanquished” Iran has demonstrated no willingness to capitulate to any American demand, least of all in reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the closure of which has heaped economic burden on American and global consumers paying higher gas and grocery prices. Meanwhile, U.S. taxpayers foot a wartime bill that may reach $1 trillion, and the war has taken thousands of civilian lives — including more than 100 school children in Minab lost in the horror of an errant U.S. missile — and 13 American servicemembers. Yes, our military has prevailed in every battle. Yet American leadership has failed to win much else. China’s has. The Iran war has vindicated China’s national clean energy industrial strategy driving its commanding technological superiority in solar, batteries, wind, electric vehicles and nuclear energy. China’s resilience and energy diplomacy has expanded its influence with — and the dependence of — the Philippines, Australia and other energy-starved U.S. allies. It has boosted exports of Chinese electric cars and other green products, which — combined with sanctions-evading trade — steadily accelerates the Chinese yuan’s steady erosion of the U.S. dollar’s dominance in global currency markets. Of course, China still suffers as an oil-importing nation that purchases 90% of Iran’s exported crude, yet the White House puzzlingly loosened sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil this spring, to China’s delight. China further benefits from the war’s erosion of the American military deterrent to Chinese ambitions in Taiwan and the South China Sea. The rapid depletion of U.S. missile and interceptor stockpiles has prompted the Pentagon to shift an entire carrier group, interceptor batteries and long-promised arms deliveries away from Asian allies to support the battle in the Persian Gulf. Taiwanese, Japanese and Korean doubts about American resolve to protect them from Chinese hegemony grow as they observe the Trump administration’s curious pattern of appeasement of China, despite the growing view of U.S. intelligence that China provides substantial assistance — components for dual-use military technology, military intelligence and possibly missiles — to … wait for it … Iran. Finally, Chinese Communist Party Chairman Xi Jinping has leveraged the war to elevate China’s global standing as a peacemaker. Xi has decried the violence on both sides, mediated a ceasefire and has graciously tolerated Trump’s pleas for help reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The world watched President Trump travel 14,000 miles to laud the magnificence of President Xi, while achieving non-binding, amorphous outcomes in a 48-hour grand summit that historians will describe as, “could have been an email.” The war has given Xi a powerful argument to the world: China remains the only reliable superpower. Meanwhile, the U.S. grows ever more isolated in a world suffering from a war we started. While the U.S., Iran and Israel continue to endure the difficulties of battle, there are winners in this war. They’re just not us. Rep. Sam Liccardo represents California’s 16th Congressional District, which includes swaths of San Mateo and Santa Clara counties. He is the former mayor of San Jose.