The big story is the hedge fund Situational Awareness, founded by investing prodigy Leopold Aschenbrenner (@leopoldasch), has been unwound following significant losses during the recent crash in AI stocks:
Truly an incredible turn of events for Situational Awareness and
[@leopoldasch].[https://t.co/kRtDQF19ZI][pic.twitter.com/qYLCDnq4xX]— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart)
[July 30, 2026]
Here is the timeline:
His downfall has all the ingredients of someone who was overleveraged, and then forced out at the bottom. Consequently, semiconductor stocks have surged, at the moment he sold. The timing could not have been worse. He was forced out at the very bottom, with Citadel picking up the scraps. One of his major positions, CoreWeave, is up 20% today as of posting this:
On March 6th, 2026, I made a post about how I was not that impressed by his fund, “Leopold Aschenbrenner’s hedge fund: dispelling the hype,” so I guess you can say I was right again, although I did not expect it to fail outright. I mentioned how my fund is better, which given that his fund no longer exists, I guess I am the winner by default:
Almost all of my ‘alpha’ since from 2025 onward was from shorting Bitcoin. Longer term, I personally achieved a CAGR of roughly 33% since 2014 (about 11 years), which is arguably in the top tier of all money managers, if not the best. A good chunk of this was from tech investments.
I am hoping to eventually spin this off as an actual hedge fund down the road, that will allow qualified investors or institutions to invest in this.
It says he lost money shorting software stocks. He should have shorted Bitcoin instead, as I had done. This is why when I claim to he’s one of the highest IQs (above 160) or best investor or trader–it’s all true. I don’t make those mistakes. I sell long dated covered calls instead of using leverage. You cannot take on 300%+ leverage on equities without eventually being blown up.
Some are saying this is a “deadcat bounce”:
Leopoldo got liquidated.
The “genius” you all worshipped wasn’t so invincible after all.
Citadel stepped in to save the fund.
Now the market is doing what it has done countless times throughout history: a classic dead cat bounce.
The biggest rallies often happen during bear…
— Peter B (@realpeteyb123)
[July 30, 2026]
I disagree. Leopold being liquidated was the bottom, and AI-related stocks will continue to recover. The underlying AI thesis has not changed. The AI-buildout will continue. Claude and Chat GPT are indispensable.