# Kioxia’s outlook miss clouds optimism about memory chip boom > Source: > Published: 2026-07-31 07:50:00+00:00 Kioxia Holdings issued a disappointing earnings outlook after results missed expectations, a sign that an unprecedented AI-driven surge in flash memory prices may be moderating. The Japanese chip leader on Friday forecast operating income of ¥3.16 trillion ($19.7 billion) for its fiscal half-year, which translates into a weaker-than-anticipated ¥1.89 trillion projection for the current quarter. That’s after it posted June-quarter operating income of ¥1.27 trillion, missing analysts’ estimates. The company also announced a 3-for-1 stock split and a buyback of up to ¥800 billion, taking action to broaden its shareholder base and reduce volatility. Investors had high hopes for Kioxia, one of the prime beneficiaries of a historic AI data center buildout. The former Toshiba unit supplies the NAND storage chips that go into data center servers, tracking ballooning spending by big tech firms including Meta Platforms. But its underwhelming guidance added to concern raised earlier on Friday by Murata Manufacturing President Norio Nakajima, who said that the current pace of spending by the world’s largest data center operators won’t last because of increasing competition and debt levels. Murata pointed to potential revisions in spending plans and Kioxia, for its part, is proceeding cautiously too: The company has said it plans to increase capacity only slightly faster than industry growth, to avoid flooding the market. Kioxia’s approach risks market-share losses to larger and deeper-pocketed rivals. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are expected to introduce next-generation NAND chips next year. Kioxia’s challenge is to catch up with its South Korean rivals in production volume. Kioxia shares have gone through wild fluctuations. At one point this year, it overtook Toyota Motor and SoftBank Group to briefly become Japan’s most valuable company. Then a steep slide erased two-thirds of those gains in just a month, as investors grew concerned about the fragility of AI spending and Kioxia’s outlook. “While the size of the share buyback is exceptionally large for a Japanese company, it is unclear whether it will be enough to offset the earnings miss,” said Tomoichiro Kubota, chief market analyst at Matsui Securities. The company has to work harder to attract the so-called U.S. hyperscalers, which have stronger ties with South Korean suppliers, said Akira Minamikawa, an analyst at Omdia. Those data center operators now seek multiyear supply contracts, giving component suppliers greater visibility into demand.