A new analyst, a new thesis, and a 228% price target hike mark the end of JPMorgan's longest-running Tesla bear case.
JPMorgan just did something it hasn’t done in nearly a decade: stopped telling investors to sell Tesla.
The bank upgraded Tesla from Underweight to Neutral on June 5, while simultaneously jacking its price target from $145 to $475. That’s a 228% increase in one move.
New analyst, new era #
The upgrade coincides with a changing of the guard. Analyst Rajat Gupta has taken over Tesla coverage from Ryan Brinkman, who maintained a bearish Underweight rating on the stock for approximately eight years, dating back to 2018.
Brinkman’s thesis was rooted in Tesla’s fundamentals as a car company. Gupta’s thesis is rooted in Tesla as something else entirely.
The new coverage framework focuses on Tesla’s advancements in robotics, autonomous driving, AI, and software. JPMorgan is no longer valuing Tesla primarily as a company that sells electric vehicles. It’s valuing Tesla as a vertically integrated technology platform that happens to also make cars.
The stock didn’t care #
Tesla shares dropped approximately 6.6% on the day of the announcement, closing around $391. The new $475 price target still implies meaningful upside from that level.
A move from Underweight to Neutral isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement. It’s JPMorgan saying “we no longer think you should actively avoid this stock.”
The long-term math #
JPMorgan projects Tesla’s earnings per share could reach approximately $7.50 by 2030, a substantial jump from an estimated $1.95 in 2026. That implies a roughly fourfold increase in per-share earnings over four years, driven largely by the company’s expansion beyond traditional automotive revenue streams.
The bank’s thesis centers on Tesla’s vertical integration across both hardware and software. Unlike most automakers, Tesla designs its own chips, writes its own software stack, builds its own battery packs, and is developing humanoid robots through its Optimus program. JPMorgan’s new framework treats these capabilities as compounding advantages rather than expensive distractions.
What this means for investors #
JPMorgan’s shift matters less because of the specific $475 number and more because of what it represents: one of the last major holdout bears capitulating on the “Tesla is just a car company” thesis.
EV sales growth has slowed across the industry, competition from Chinese manufacturers like BYD continues to intensify, and Tesla’s brand has faced headwinds in key European markets. None of those concerns disappeared because an analyst changed a rating.
The projected jump from $1.95 to $7.50 in earnings per share between 2026 and 2030 is the number to watch. If Tesla can execute on autonomous driving deployment and begin generating meaningful software-based recurring revenue, those projections could prove conservative. If robotaxi timelines slip again, or if Optimus remains more demo than product, the current valuation starts to look stretched even at Neutral.
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