# Is AI taking jobs? Census data through September 2026 says not yet > Source: > Published: 2026-10-27 13:27:31+00:00 # Home # Which jobs is AI taking, and is yours one of them? **Note: Current answer, as of October 26, 2026, data through September 2026: not yet across the economy; the clearest sign is weaker employment of young workers in the most exposed quarter of occupations** **In the year to September 2026, jobs in the 135 occupations exposed to AI (score 0.5 or more) were 2.8% above the same months of 2021-22, against 3.7% above for the rest, a gap smaller than the survey's margin of error. Before ChatGPT the same exposed occupations had grown faster (+3.5% against -0.8% from 2018-19 to 2021-22). Workers aged 22 to 25 are the exception: in the most exposed quarter of occupations their employment grew 0.1% while young employment elsewhere grew 9.6%.** Confidence: medium. **Scale:** the 135 occupations scoring 0.5 or more on the exposure scale hold 25% of jobs. All jobs grew 3.3% ([Census CPS](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/datasets/), [Eloundou et al.](https://github.com/openai/GPTs-are-GPTs)). **Jobs that shrank:** 17 exposed occupations fell by more than the noise, among them [Customer service reps (-8.7%)](./occupations/office-and-administrative-support/customer-service-representatives/), [Non-retail sales supervisors (-14.0%)](./occupations/sales-and-related/first-line-supervisors-of-non-retail-sales-workers/), [IT managers (-16.0%)](./occupations/management/computer-and-information-systems-managers/), [Programmers (-24.0%)](./occupations/computer-and-mathematical/computer-programmers/), with 1.68 million fewer jobs together. 20 others rose by more than the noise and added 2.37 million, including [Software developers (+18.5%)](./occupations/computer-and-mathematical/software-developers/), [Project managers (+30.6%)](./occupations/business-and-financial-operations/project-management-specialists/), [Other computer jobs (+24.4%)](./occupations/computer-and-mathematical/computer-occupations-all-other/). Secretaries and general office clerks, which moved by similar numbers in opposite directions, and a catch-all business occupation whose series jumps several-fold, are left out of these examples as likely coding shifts. **Young workers:** the household survey gap in the most exposed quarter of occupations matches payroll data showing employment of ages 22 to 25 in the most exposed jobs 19% below less-exposed peers (August 2026), while the whole occupational mix shows no clear AI footprint ([Stanford](https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/publication/canaries-in-the-coal-mine-six-facts-about-the-recent-employment-effects-of-artificial-intelligence/), [Yale Budget Lab](https://budgetlab.yale.edu/node/1419/pdf)). ## The answer at a glance Every bubble is an occupation sized by its jobs; hollow bubbles moved by less than the survey can detect. Click one to open its page, or [open it full size](./home/exposure-and-jobs-map-html/). ## Is yours one of them? Search 513 occupations by title or by common job titles. [Find your job](./find-your-job-html/) shows pay and exposure scores and up to ten matches. **Exposure alone does not decide it.** 13% of exposed occupations fell beyond the noise against 7% of low-exposure ones (17 of 135 against 27 of 378, a difference of about 1.7 standard errors), and similar shares rose (15% against 16%). Across occupations, weighted by jobs, the correlation between exposure and employment change is 0.04. In BLS's own categories, "very high" exposure changed +3.6% and "low" -1.6%. **Why medium.** The household survey is large for groups and small for single jobs, so most occupations sit within the noise; the exposure scores date from 2023; and no source here isolates cause. ## What would change our mind Each question names the next dated event and the page that tracks it. - [Will the gap for young workers in exposed jobs keep widening?](./home/open-questions/will-the-gap-for-young-workers-in-exposed-jobs-keep-widening/) : BLS Employment Situation report for October 2026, then the Census October 2026 microdata file, Nov 6, 2026. Tracked on[Young workers in exposed jobs](./young-workers-in-exposed-jobs/) . - [Will employers keep citing AI as the reason for layoffs at this year's pace?](./home/open-questions/will-employers-keep-citing-ai-as-the-reason-for-layoffs-at-this-year-s-pace/) : Challenger, Gray and Christmas report for October 2026, Nov 5, 2026. Tracked on[Young workers in exposed jobs](./young-workers-in-exposed-jobs/) . - [Will exposed jobs keep pace as new months arrive?](./home/open-questions/will-exposed-jobs-keep-pace-as-new-months-arrive/) : Census October 2026 CPS public-use file (oct26pub), after the November 6, 2026 jobs report, Nov 2026. Tracked on[Where AI exposure meets falling employment](./where-ai-exposure-meets-falling-employment/) . - [Will BLS move more occupations into projected decline for AI reasons?](./home/open-questions/will-bls-move-more-occupations-into-projected-decline-for-ai-reasons/) : BLS 2026-36 Employment Projections, which BLS says will be released in 2027, 2027. Tracked on[Where AI exposure meets falling employment](./where-ai-exposure-meets-falling-employment/) . - [Will the next usage data show more automation-type use of AI?](./home/open-questions/will-the-next-usage-data-show-more-automation-type-use-of-ai/) : Next Anthropic Economic Index release (earlier releases: 2026-01-15, 2026-03-24, 2026-06-26); checked monthly, no date announced. Tracked on[Augment or automate](./augment-or-automate/) . All five are on [Open questions](./home/open-questions/). ## The evidence ### Where exposure meets falling employment [Where AI exposure meets falling employment](./where-ai-exposure-meets-falling-employment/) computes the answer: 135 exposed occupations, 17 that fell and 20 that rose by more than the noise, and the checks against the years before ChatGPT and the BLS exposure categories. ``` type: bar title: Employment change by exposure quartile (percent) x: quartile y: [before, after, latest quarter] height: 280 data: - quartile: "1 least exposed" before: -3.0 after: 0.4 latest quarter: -0.4 - quartile: "2" before: -2.1 after: 5.6 latest quarter: 6.4 - quartile: "3" before: 1.9 after: 3.9 latest quarter: 1.4 - quartile: "4 most exposed" before: 3.1 after: 3.3 latest quarter: 3.6 ``` "before" compares November 2021 to September 2022 with November 2018 to September 2019; "after" compares November 2025 to September 2026 with November 2021 to September 2022; "latest quarter" is July to September 2026 against July to September 2022. Before and after use the 511 occupations that can be traced back to 2019. Standard errors are about 1 point for each bar. ### Young workers in exposed jobs [Young workers in exposed jobs](./young-workers-in-exposed-jobs/) sets the household survey next to the payroll studies, the broader labor-market studies and employer statements. The narrow finding that holds up: employment of workers aged 22 to 25 in the most exposed jobs is weaker than elsewhere, in three sources that use different data. ### Augment or automate [Augment or automate](./augment-or-automate/) splits exposed jobs by whether AI use leans toward automation or augmentation: the automation-leaning group changed -2.2% and the augmentation-leaning group -2.2%. ### Who is exposed [Occupations](./occupations/) has the exposure and employment change for each of 22 major groups, and a page for each of 241 occupations. [BLS Employment Projections 2025-35 and AI (August 27, 2026)](./studies/bls-employment-projections-2025-35-and-ai-august-27-2026/) and [BLS AI exposure categories (August 27, 2026)](./studies/bls-ai-exposure-categories-august-27-2026/) give the BLS view for 2025 to 2035. ## What changed Earlier claims are struck through and replaced, each with its date and source. The full list is on [Old claims and what replaced them](./old-claims-and-what-replaced-them/). - **Oct 26, 2026, this wiki:** the employment data moved from the BLS employer survey (OEWS, May 2022 to May 2025) to the Census household survey through September 2026, which is monthly and current.~~exposed jobs grew 1.9% from May 2022 to May 2025 against 6.6% for the rest, and 74 exposed occupations lost 1.63 million jobs~~ replaced by exposed jobs +2.8% against +3.7% for the rest (the year to September 2026 against the same months of 2021-22), with 17 exposed occupations falling by more than the noise (1.68 million fewer jobs) and 20 rising (2.37 million more).~~Current answer: not yet across the economy, with early signs in office and customer-service work and among young workers~~ replaced by the answer above. Source:[How this wiki was built](./how-this-wiki-was-built/) . - **Aug 12, 2026, Stanford payroll study:**~~a 13 percent relative employment decline for ages 22 to 25 in the most exposed occupations (Aug 26, 2025)~~ replaced by 19%, with data through June 2026. Source:[Canaries in the Coal Mine (Stanford, 2025 and 2026)](./studies/canaries-in-the-coal-mine-stanford-2025-and-2026/) . - **Jan 2025, World Economic Forum:**~~83 million jobs lost and 69 million created by 2027 (May 2023)~~ , which had replaced~~85 million displaced and 97 million created by 2025 (Oct 2020)~~ , replaced by 92 million displaced and 170 million created by 2030. Source:[Future of Jobs Report 2025 (World Economic Forum)](./studies/future-of-jobs-report-2025-world-economic-forum/) . - **2016, OECD:**~~about 47 percent of US employment at high risk of computerisation (Frey and Osborne, Sept 2013)~~ replaced by 9% of jobs automatable on average across 21 OECD countries, from a task-based method. Source:[The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries (OECD, 2016)](./studies/the-risk-of-automation-for-jobs-in-oecd-countries-oecd-2016/) . Checked against the data: the 200 occupations the 2013 table puts at 0.7 or higher changed -0.6% from 2021-22 to the year to September 2026 against +2.4% for all matched occupations ([Old claims and what replaced them](./old-claims-and-what-replaced-them/) ). - **May 9, 2025, Klarna:**~~its AI assistant did the work of 700 customer service agents (Feb 2024)~~ replaced by recruiting human customer service staff again. Source:[Entrepreneur](https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/klarna-ceo-reverses-course-by-hiring-more-humans-not-ai/491396) . ## Explore the wiki - **Look up a job:**[Find your job](./find-your-job-html/) . - **Browse:**[Occupations](./occupations/) (241 occupation pages in 22 groups),[Studies](./studies/) (15 studies and reports),[Open questions](./home/open-questions/) (5 open questions). - **Analysis:**[Where AI exposure meets falling employment](./where-ai-exposure-meets-falling-employment/) ;[Young workers in exposed jobs](./young-workers-in-exposed-jobs/) ;[Augment or automate](./augment-or-automate/) ;[Old claims and what replaced them](./old-claims-and-what-replaced-them/) . - **Interactive pages:**[Exposure and jobs map](./home/exposure-and-jobs-map-html/) ;[Find your job](./find-your-job-html/) ;[Exposed jobs that gained and lost](./where-ai-exposure-meets-falling-employment/exposed-jobs-that-gained-and-lost-html/) . - **Groups:**[Management](./occupations/management/) ,[Business and Financial Operations](./occupations/business-and-financial-operations/) ,[Computer and Mathematical](./occupations/computer-and-mathematical/) ,[Architecture and Engineering](./occupations/architecture-and-engineering/) ,[Life, Physical, and Social Science](./occupations/life-physical-and-social-science/) ,[Community and Social Service](./occupations/community-and-social-service/) ,[Legal](./occupations/legal/) ,[Educational Instruction and Library](./occupations/educational-instruction-and-library/) ,[Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media](./occupations/arts-design-entertainment-sports-and-media/) ,[Healthcare Practitioners and Technical](./occupations/healthcare-practitioners-and-technical/) ,[Healthcare Support](./occupations/healthcare-support/) ,[Protective Service](./occupations/protective-service/) ,[Food Preparation and Serving Related](./occupations/food-preparation-and-serving-related/) ,[Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance](./occupations/building-and-grounds-cleaning-and-maintenance/) ,[Personal Care and Service](./occupations/personal-care-and-service/) ,[Sales and Related](./occupations/sales-and-related/) ,[Office and Administrative Support](./occupations/office-and-administrative-support/) ,[Farming, Fishing, and Forestry](./occupations/farming-fishing-and-forestry/) ,[Construction and Extraction](./occupations/construction-and-extraction/) ,[Installation, Maintenance, and Repair](./occupations/installation-maintenance-and-repair/) ,[Production](./occupations/production/) ,[Transportation and Material Moving](./occupations/transportation-and-material-moving/) . - **Methods:**[How this wiki was built](./how-this-wiki-was-built/) covers sources, the noise rule, what the data can and cannot show, and known gaps.