# Intel's stunning 2026 revival faces its biggest test as Q2 earnings land today > Source: > Published: 2026-07-23 10:45:10+00:00 *Intel reports Q2 2026 earnings today with a real turnaround under way and a stock price that already expects a lot. The comeback is no longer the hard part. Proving it quarter after quarter is.* Intel has earned the market's attention again, but you shouldn't confuse that with a clean victory lap. The company reports second-quarter results after the market closes on July 23, with its earnings call set for 2 p.m. Pacific time, according to Intel's own announcement. Analysts tracked by MarketWatch and Barron's expect about $14.4 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings of roughly $0.22 a share. The bar is high. That's the strange part of this Intel moment. A year ago, investors were still arguing about whether the company could stop looking like the old Intel: slow on process technology, stretched on foundry spending, and badly outshone by Nvidia in the AI trade. Now the argument has moved. Intel's shares are up roughly 180% in 2026, based on recent MarketWatch and Barron's reporting, even after pulling back from their June peak. You don't get that kind of move because Wall Street is merely curious. Intel's first-quarter report gave the bulls something real to work with. The company reported $13.6 billion in revenue, up 7% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.29, far ahead of the $0.20 it guided for Q2. Its Data Center and AI unit brought in $5.1 billion, up 22%. Intel Foundry revenue was $5.4 billion, up 16%, although that figure still includes a lot of internal business. That distinction matters. Foundry momentum sounds better when you remember how little of it is truly external today. ## The foundry case finally has names attached Lip-Bu Tan, who became Intel CEO in March 2025 after Pat Gelsinger stepped down in December 2024, inherited a company with one obvious job: make the foundry plan believable. Intel said in June that 18A-P, the first performance enhancement to its 18A family, had entered risk production. That isn't volume manufacturing. It is still a concrete milestone. The customer list is no longer just hope on a slide deck. Intel announced this week that Fortinet will co-develop and manufacture its next-generation firewall ASIC on Intel 4, which Tom's Hardware described as the first named external customer for that EUV-based node. Microsoft has also been linked to an Intel 18A custom chip, while Intel said in 2024 that AWS selected Intel Foundry for an AI fabric chip on 18A and a custom Xeon 6 chip on Intel 3. These aren't abstract wins. They are the kind of specific commitments Intel needed to show before anyone could take its foundry pitch seriously again. The Apple story needs cleaner handling than the market chatter has given it. Dow Jones reported in June that President Trump said Apple had agreed to work with Intel on some U.S. chip manufacturing, and that The Wall Street Journal had previously reported a preliminary Apple-Intel agreement. Trump also said he helped Intel secure work with Nvidia and Elon Musk's Terafab. That's not the same as saying Apple has committed to a published 15 million to 20 million unit schedule. I couldn't verify that volume claim, so it shouldn't be in the story. Here's the thing: Intel doesn't have to beat Nvidia at Nvidia's own game for the stock to keep a serious bull case. Nvidia still owns the center of the AI accelerator market. Intel's cleaner argument is different. It can become the most credible American advanced foundry at the exact moment customers and Washington want more chipmaking capacity outside Taiwan. ## The stock is now the problem RBC's setup ahead of the print shows the tension. StockTwits reported that RBC expects Intel to deliver roughly a 5% revenue beat, raise guidance by 3% to 5%, and post better gross margins than expected. RBC still kept a Sector Perform rating and an $80 price target. That is the market in miniature: better numbers, but not a blank check. You can see why. Intel is still cutting. Business Insider reported this week that layoffs are planned in the Data Center Group as Tan pushes the company to become more focused and efficient. A company can be improving and still be under pressure. Those two facts can sit in the same sentence without cancelling each other out. For investors, today's report is less about whether Intel has made progress. It has. The question is whether the next set of numbers can support a stock that has already moved as if the turnaround is well ahead of schedule. Revenue near $14.4 billion would confirm demand. A stronger guide would help. Any weakness in gross margin, foundry commentary, or data center supply could quickly remind you how much optimism is already in the price. Frankly, the old Intel didn't deserve much patience. This version has earned some. But after a rally this large, patience has a price, and the market will start charging it after 2 p.m. Pacific. **Also read:** [Uber cuts 10% of customer service staff and becomes the first gig-economy giant to blame AI](https://startupfortune.com/uber-cuts-10-of-customer-service-staff-and-becomes-the-first-gig-economy-giant-to-blame-ai/); [SpaceX's Starship Flight 13 is the first real test of a $2 trillion valuation](https://startupfortune.com/spacexs-starship-flight-13-is-the-first-real-test-of-a-2-trillion-valuation/); [Westinghouse lands an $80 billion nuclear contract and AI is the reason why](https://startupfortune.com/westinghouse-lands-an-80-billion-nuclear-contract-and-ai-is-the-reason-why/)