{"slug": "in-space-everyone-can-hear-you-scream", "title": "In space, everyone can hear you scream", "summary": "Startup exits valued at $1 billion or more have reached their highest level since 2021, with 13 such liquidity events in Q2 2026, driven partly by SpaceX's IPO. Meanwhile, AI labs like Anthropic and OpenAI are shifting from flat-fee government discounts to usage-based pricing, as Anthropic strikes a new deal with California.", "body_md": "# In space, everyone can hear you scream\n\n* Welcome to *.\n\n[Cautious Optimism](https://www.cautiousoptimism.news/), a newsletter on tech, business, and power. Modestly upbeat\n\n**Tuesday. **Here’s something to chew on: Tech stocks have [rallied sharply this year](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/tech-stocks-on-pace-for-best-6-months-since-2023--even-with-much-of-the-magnificent-7-in-the-penalty-box-chart-of-the-day-100000120.html), but Microsoft and Meta are dragging the sector down. Shares of Microsoft are off around 22% this year, for example, while Meta has shed 13.5%. Of the vaunted Mag7, the largest gain posted this year comes via Alphabet, which is up 11.4%. Not much compared to the 18% gain the Nasdaq 100 racked up in the first half of the year.\n\nToday, we’re looking at startup exits, discounted AI, another $100 million revenue announcement, changes to the Uber-Waymo partnership, and Rocket Lab’s acquisition of Iridium. To work! — Alex\n\n## 📈 Trending Up\n\n[Public corruption](https://x.com/Ike_Saul/status/2071567918664479024)…[support thereof](https://www.axios.com/2026/06/26/scoop-jd-vance-raises-42-million-in-silicon-valley)…[fear of AI bills](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/amazon-pay-anthropic-technology-new-deal)…[personal privacy](https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/29/in-major-privacy-win-supreme-court-rules-geofence-warrants-are-protected-by-privacy-rights/)…[AI models built by food delivery companies](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-meituan-says-new-ai-model-trained-domestic-chips-2026-06-30/)…[jealousy in the Bay Area](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/technology/san-francisco-tech-salaries.html?unlocked_article_code=1.t1A.hZip.Vm7L5isc1PkL&smid=nytcore-ios-share)…[technology companies as nation-states](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-06-30/laliga-s-football-piracy-crackdown-is-breaking-the-internet)…[foxes, henhouses](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-29/trump-convert-marc-andreessen-gets-spot-on-pentagon-policy-board)…\n\n**Startup exits: **Crunchbase News’s [Joanna Glasner reports](https://news.crunchbase.com/public/data-billion-dollar-startup-exits-ma-ipo-spcx-q2-2026/) that startup exits valued at $1 billion or more “are now more numerous than at any point since the 2021 market peak,” with thirteen such liquidity events in the second quarter. SpaceX’s massive IPO skews the data, but exit value overall appears to be rising:\n\nThis is a big deal. After years of limited exit volume and value, venture capitalists are finally able to recycle capital. That frees up LPs to commit to new funds after their existing venture bets convert into cash and reset their investment allocation targets. Technical, I know, but important if you want the United States’ lead in AI investment to continue.\n\n**Discounted AI for government?** Last August, major labs announced zero-cost AI access to American government agencies. OpenAI and Anthropic offered [ChatGPT Enterprise](https://openai.com/index/providing-chatgpt-to-the-entire-us-federal-workforce/), [Claude for Government, and its enterprise equivalent](https://www.anthropic.com/news/offering-expanded-claude-access-across-all-three-branches-of-government) for $1 per agency for a year. Not to be outdone, Alphabet [offered](https://cloud.google.com/blog/topics/public-sector/introducing-gemini-for-government-supporting-the-us-governments-transformation-with-ai) similar products for $0.47 per agency through this August (POTUS is the 47th President), while [xAI joined the fun](https://x.ai/news/onegov), offering Grok for Government Teams for $0.42 per year through March 2027 (42 and 420 are meme numbers).\n\nUnsurprisingly, the days of offering lots of AI cheaply are behind us now that major providers are shifting to charging for usage rather than offering unlimited capacity for a flat fee. But discounts are still in play. This week, Anthropic and the state of California announced a deal, [detailed first to Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/29/exclusive-newsom-anthropic-ink-deal-to-expand-government-use-00979584), that will “drive broader adoption of Claude [in the state] by cutting the AI chatbot’s price in half for state government agencies, as well as Californian cities and counties that decide to take advantage.” The AI lab is even throwing in “workforce training and technical support” to boot, the publication writes.\n\nThis is a pretty big win. California has the fourth-largest economy among nations. Therefore, Anthropic securing so much of its inference demand is a boon for its growth (and revenue stability), not to mention state taxpayers, who will now be served by the world’s leading AI models at half the normal price. Not bad.\n\n- Speaking of the government and AI,\n[Palantir and Nvidia just teamed up to offer](https://www.palantir.com/sovereignaios-modelengine)“self-improving models specific to” the government. Combining Nvidia’s Nemotron family of open-source AI models and Palantir’s infra, the goal is to bring “self-improving models and sovereignty over mission-critical AI work, where open models are essential for national security, corporate sustainability, and industrial innovation. - Using Palantir isn’t cheap —\n[see its revenue growth and margins here](https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2026/Palantir-Reports-Q1-2026-U-S--Revenue-Growth-of-104-YY-and-Revenue-Growth-of-85-YY-Raises-FY-2026-Revenue-Guidance-to-71-YY-Growth-and-U-S--Comm-Revenue-Guidance-to-120-YY-Crushing-Consensus-Expectations/)— but open source*is*. Perhaps this combination will put fresh fire under domestic AI labs to offer future discounts to the taxpayer. - Finally,\n**seeing Nvidia sling its**, given its investment in and support of both OpenAI and Anthropic. A bet hedge? A realization that it can compete, too?*own*open models is notable\n\n**$100M ARR or bust:** Quickly following Hugging Face’s announcement that it [crossed the $100 million annual run rate threshold](https://www.cautiousoptimism.news/welcome-to-the-ai-cybersecurity-cold-war/), Arena [told TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/29/arena-the-ai-leaderboard-everyone-uses-is-now-a-100m-business/) it has managed the same feat. Much like Hugging Face, Arena — previously LMArena — is best known as a free resource (a granular breakdown of comparative model performance). However, the company began selling ‘AI evaluations’ last September, “a service that provides model labs and enterprises with deep-dive performance analytics gathered from its community,” TC writes.\n\n- That’s\n*also*a $100 million business! Our learning from Hugging Face that we may be underestimating the size of the AI economy, apart from the largest players, holds true here. Good job, Arena!\n\n[📉](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/servicenow-pledges-1-5bn-investment-110000403.html) Trending Down\n\n[📉](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/servicenow-pledges-1-5bn-investment-110000403.html)\n\n[AI music](https://www.musicbusinessworldwide.com/tidal-to-tag-fully-ai-generated-music-and-block-it-from-earning-royalties/)…[clean governance](https://www.npr.org/2026/06/29/nx-s1-5816232/supreme-court-ftc-independent-agencies-humphreys-executor)…[journalism as career](https://pressgazette.co.uk/news/confusion-and-anger-as-publisher-moves-journalists-to-pay-per-click-contracts/)…[clean governance](https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/06/trump-administration-signal-chat-marco-rubio/687735/)…[working at Meta](https://www.wired.com/story/meta-contractors-pretending-to-be-teens-chatbot-testing/)…[oil prices](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/30/oil-prices-brent-wti-crude-trump-iran.html)…[German inflation](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/30/oil-prices-brent-wti-crude-trump-iran.html)…\n\n**The Waymo-Uber bromance: **Ridehailing service Uber is working with a host of self-driving players. Recently, its efforts include projects with [Rivian](https://rivian.com/newsroom/article/uber-and-rivian-partner-to-deploy-up-to-50000-fully-autonomous-robotaxis), [Lucid+Nuro](https://www.nuro.ai/nuro-lucid-uber-robotaxi), and [Waabi](https://techcrunch.com/2026/01/28/waabi-raises-1b-and-expands-into-robotaxis-with-uber/). Given its myriad bets and partnerships, Uber’s ties with Waymo seemed suspect. Why would Waymo share economics with a player that was working night and day to compete with it?\n\nThis week, the two companies [confirmed ](https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/29/waymo-and-uber-quietly-part-ways-in-phoenix/)that their partnership in Phoenix, Arizona, has come to a close. How long Waymo vehicles will be available in other Uber cities is unclear, but I wouldn’t bet they’ll last long past their contractual obligations. This means that Uber will become the head of the self-driving rebel alliance (of sorts), while Waymo will increasingly depend on its own demand network. Thus far, demand for self-driving rides appears very strong, so the loss in question for the Alphabet-owned company is likely smaller than Uber would have hoped.\n\n## Rocket Lab is buying Iridium!\n\nWhile the rapid-fire launch cadence of SpaceX captures headlines, smaller launch company Rocket Lab is no slouch when it comes to reaching orbit. The second most active launch company, Rocket Lab, [said](https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com/static-files/be9441ad-c07f-49c2-ad50-531fd77180ee) it had 21 launches last year, including 7 in the fourth quarter, its “biggest launch quarter yet.” Per the company’s [Q1 2026 presentation](https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com/static-files/c0bd4327-c3ff-4843-8eae-8b0d8a4d4b82), it’s on pace to surpass its 2025 launch tally this year and has more than 70 launches in its backlog, the largest figure it has recorded to date.\n\nBut Rocket Lab is not merely working to accelerate the pace at which its Electron rocket takes off. The company is also busy with its checkbook, snapping up new companies, including Mynaric ([closed in Q1, laser optical comms](https://rocketlabcorp.com/updates/rocket-lab-completes-mynaric-acquisition-adding-laser-optical-communications-to-growing-space-systems-portfolio/)) and Motiv Space Systems ([announced Q2, space robotics](https://rocketlabcorp.com/updates/rocket-lab-to-acquire-robotics-leader-motiv-space-systems/)). What you need to know is that while Rocket Lab is indeed a laboratory for rockets, it also sells [spacecraft](https://rocketlabcorp.com/space-systems/spacecraft/) and [in-orbit solar power solutions](https://rocketlabcorp.com/space-systems/solar/).\n\nAll that’s to say that Rocket Lab wants to be much more than a simple launch company, paid to take your goods to LEO. To wit, its latest news: [Rocket Lab is buying Iridium for $8 billion](https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rocket-lab-acquire-iridium-historic-deal-creating-fully), or $54 per share. What’s the pitch?\n\n[The deal] merges Rocket Lab’s leading launch capabilities and satellite manufacturing with\n\n[Iridium’s global satellite communications network], spectrum, and 500-plus strong partner ecosystem to create a competitive, vertically-integrated space company that designs, builds, launches, and operates its own constellations, delivering critical communications capability to millions of users worldwide.\n\nIridium is almost the anti-Starlink. While the SpaceX satellite Internet company offers high-bandwidth connections for consumer use, Iridium sells low-bandwidth connections where people are sparse. So, you can watch YouTube with Starlink, but if you want to talk to your ships across the Pacific, you might buy from Iridium. (Starlink is expanding its remit over time, so we’re speaking loosely.)\n\nThe deal is pitched in two key ways. First, as an expansion of Rocket Lab’s vertical integration. Second, as a positive financial juicer. The first point isn’t hard to understand: Rocket Lab buying Iridium gives it in-house demand for launches, and provides its satcomms business access to cheaper trips to space. Having its own fleet of satellites in addition to its satellite-making business again strengthens its internal operations.\n\nThat’s all obvious enough. What’s less apparent unless you parse the numbers is that Iridium will improve Rocket Lab’s operating performance. In Q1 2026, Rocket Lab [reported](https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rocket-lab-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results) revenue of just over $200 million, up from $122.6 million in the year-ago period (+63%). Its operating loss for the quarter was $56.0 million, down from $59.2 million in the year-ago quarter.\n\nIridium, in contrast, [reported Q1 2026 revenue](https://investor.iridium.com/2026-04-23-Iridium-Announces-First-Quarter-2026-Results?_gl=1*cu4jok*_up*MQ..*_gs*MQ..&gclid=CjwKCAjw0o3SBhBVEiwAh28-jTXsu9bhnnQV7wgNnGYnsqTSCaeZRKw3wytBR55BYHkOwRYv2xuYlRoClk0QAvD_BwE) of $219.1 million, up from $214.9 million in Q1 2025. That de minimis growth contrasted with its $50.7 million in first-quarter operating income and $21.6 million in net income. Both figures were down somewhat from year-ago tallies, but they go a long way towards erasing Rocket Lab’s own operating and net deficits.\n\nSo, together, the company is larger, slower-growing, and probably at or near break-even on an operating basis. The good news is that Rocket Lab is growing so quickly, with revenue forecast at $225 million to $240 million in the second quarter, that it can eat Iridium’s slower expansion and still put up strong year-over-year results.\n\nWith around 10 quarters’ worth of top-line backlog, Rocket Lab will be a busy bee for the foreseeable future. The question post-Iridium is what the space launch company can do that is more than additive as a conjoined entity.\n\nIn essence, Rocket Lab is buying a shortcut to offering space applications. Here’s how the companies [explain their combinatory logic](https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com/static-files/70a090f6-58db-4893-bfc0-c31396b152b1):\n\nYes, they went with the 1 + 1 = 3 formulation. Incredible.\n\nHow do we vet its deal logic? Investors in Iridium are happy to see the value of their equity rise from around $43 per share to $53. Rocket Lab investors appear more neutral. That matches our vibes. Yes, the deal is a win for Iridium shareholders who get a quick markup. For Rocket Lab, the proof will be how well it can leverage Iridium’s assets alongside its own business to do much more, much faster than the two companies could have managed on their own. (Operational risk, not engineering or science risk, if you will.)\n\nIn caveman terms, the deal makes Rocket Lab a more comparable entity to SpaceX (launch + satellite comms) and Blue Origin (launch + [satellite comms](https://www.blueorigin.com/news/blue-origin-introduces-terawave-space-based-network-for-global-connectivity)). That means in short order the United States will have *three* similar, competing space companies. From a national security perspective, not bad! And from a commercial perspective, seeing the $57 billion Rocket Lab increasingly go vertical represents an opportunity for investors to buy into a SpaceX competitor at a much smaller valuation.\n\nAI is hot and all, but things are *cooking* in space. Many a startup depends on more, larger, and cheaper rockets launching over time. So if we want Starcloud to succeed, perhaps all we need to say at this juncture is that the space launch industry is doing everything but cooling down. And that’s a win for our species.", "url": "https://wpnews.pro/news/in-space-everyone-can-hear-you-scream", "canonical_source": "https://www.cautiousoptimism.news/in-space-everyone-can-hear-you-scream/", "published_at": "2026-06-30 13:17:01+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-30 13:25:11.412213+00:00", "lang": "en", "topics": ["ai-startups", "ai-policy", "ai-products"], "entities": ["SpaceX", "Anthropic", "OpenAI", "Alphabet", "xAI", "Microsoft", "Meta", "California"], "alternates": {"html": "https://wpnews.pro/news/in-space-everyone-can-hear-you-scream", "markdown": "https://wpnews.pro/news/in-space-everyone-can-hear-you-scream.md", "text": "https://wpnews.pro/news/in-space-everyone-can-hear-you-scream.txt", "jsonld": "https://wpnews.pro/news/in-space-everyone-can-hear-you-scream.jsonld"}}