# IMF edges 2026 global growth forecast lower to 3%, sees rebound in 2027 > Source: > Published: 2026-07-08 13:04:12+00:00 By Andrea Shalal WASHINGTON, July 8 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday inched its 2026 global growth forecast lower again to 3.0%, warning of ongoing risks posed by the war in the Middle East, trade fragmentation and potential corrections in market expectations for AI. The global lender said the world economy had dodged a sharper downturn as a result of the war, with demand-driven momentum in the tech sector helping to offset a war-related drop in energy supplies. Growth should rebound to 3.4% in 2027, but that is still below the average of 3.5% seen in 2024 and 2025. The IMF raised its 2026 headline inflation forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 4.7% from April, but said it should drop to 3.9% next year. Energy prices were 25% higher now than before the war began on February 28 and would remain higher, it said. The new forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz will start to reopen in mid-July, reaching prewar conditions by March 2027. "The global economy as a whole has, so far, weathered the shock from the war better than feared," the IMF said in an update to its World Economic Outlook, noting the outlook was brighter for energy exporters and countries that are closely integrated into the technology sector, while commodity importers that are not well-positioned to benefit from AI developments generally saw downgrades in their growth forecasts. Growth in global trade was projected to slow sharply to 3.5% in 2026 from 5% in 2025, a year marked by heavy front-loading ahead of U.S. tariffs, before rebounding to 4.3% in 2027. Deniz Igan, chief of the IMF Research Department's World Economic Studies division, said the global economy was proving more resilient than expected in April, despite the impact of the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Prices were higher, confidence was down, but the release of strategic oil reserves and commercial inventories - along with rising energy efficiency - had helped to offset supply shortages. The private sector had also adapted quickly, finding alternative routes and supplies. "So far things have been okay, but that doesn't take away the risk factors that are there, particularly with the war," she told Reuters. A collapse of the peace deal and renewed fighting could pose big risks, since countries have largely tapped out their reserves and would have less room to maneuver. The U.S. military unleashed a new wave of strikes against Iran on Tuesday and revoked a license allowing the country to sell oil after three tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz, putting pressure on an already fragile ceasefire.