How to Invest in AI (2025)

In a new piece for The Colossus Review, investor and author Ben Thompson argues that generative AI will not make investors rich, comparing it to shipping containerization rather than the information and communication technology revolution. Thompson's analysis, based on his appearance on Patrick O'Shaughnessy's Invest Like the Best podcast, questions how much value AI will create and who will capture it, concluding that the value will be spread thin.

I’ve been a huge fan of Patrick O’Shaughnessy since I was on his Invest Like the Best podcast https://joincolossus.com/series/invest-like-the-best/ . Patrick asks good questions and, in a world that now abounds with answers, the most valuable people are the ones who can ask the best questions. Back in May, Patrick asked me an interesting question: where is AI in the tech cycle and what does that say about investing in it? I told him my thoughts. He said, “great, can you turn that into 3000 words?” for his new magazine, The Colossus Review https://joincolossus.com/mag/ . I told him I didn’t have time to write 3000 words, but I’d be happy to write 5000 words. That piece is now out https://joincolossus.com/article/ai-will-not-make-you-rich/ . The setup is: Anyone who invests in the newnew thing must answer two questions: First, how much value will this innovation create? And second, who will capture it? Information and communication technology ICT was a revolution whose value was captured by startups and led to thousands of newly rich founders, employees, and investors. In contrast, shipping containerization was a revolution whose value was spread so thin that in the end, it made only a single founder temporarily rich and only a single investor a little bit richer.Is generative AI more like the former or the latter? Will it be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser for the investment community as a whole, with a few zero-sum winners here and there? I think it’s pretty good. Take a read.