AI demand is keeping supplies tight, but slower pricing momentum and expansion by CXMT and YMTC are raising questions over how long boom can last
A sharp run-up in global memory-chip stocksis beginning to falter as cooling price growth raises questions over how long the sector’s explosive boom can last, even as artificial intelligence (AI) demand remains robust and Chinese producers prepare to add more supply.
While data-centre spending continues to fuel appetite for high-end memory, analysts are warning that the steep price increases – which drove record profits over past quarters – are signal a shift towards a late-stage industry cycle. The concern is showing up in recent institutional forecasts. In a report last week, Morgan Stanley warned that the memory cycle was set to enter its late stage in the fourth quarter, as price increases moderate and inventories build.
The pullback has been broad-based, with shares of major memory firms, including Micron, SK Hynix and SanDisk, retreating from highs in recent weeks as investors reassess the durability of the run-up.
That deceleration is already reflected in contract pricing: Bernstein Research noted in a report on Friday that conventional DRAM contract prices were expected to rise about 17 per cent in the third quarter compared to the previous period, a sharp slowdown from the roughly 65 per cent jump quarter on quarter in the April-June period this year.
Adding to supply-side pressure are expansion plans by China’s top memory producers.
UBS expected ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) to nearly double its monthly DRAM capacity from around 240,000 wafer starts at the end of 2025 to 466,000 by late 2028, lifting its share of global DRAM bit supply from about 7 per cent to 10 per cent.