{"slug": "how-i-m-thinking-about-the-anthropic-and-openai-ipos", "title": "How I'm Thinking About the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs", "summary": "The author views the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs as solid investments given the massive opportunity of AI as decision support for all entities on Earth, comparing the current stage to pre-punch-card era. They see Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic as one bet competing against open source, China, and ASI, not each other, and are confident in all three US Frontier Labs over the next decade.", "body_md": "Some quick thoughts on the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs, and how I see this whole space right now. And please know I'm not some super-genius investor. And I'm not super rich. This is just my thinking on this.\n\nOne way I've been explaining how big I think AI is, is to say that the TAM for AI is decision support for Earth.\n\nThere are trillions of decisions being made every minute on the planet. From individuals, to families, to communities, to cities, to states, to countries, etc. Both personally, and for all businesses.\n\nMost entities would like to make better decisions. So that's the size of the opportunity.\n\nBut an even bigger way I frame this is to say that there is always a gap between the current state and ideal state for any entity, both personal and professional. And (I think) the ultimate instantiation of AI is the continuous elimination of that delta.\n\nThe ultimate opportunity for AI technology is the elimination of delta between Current State and Ideal State for all entities.\n\nThat means using AI to continuously:\n\nWe could call that Decision Support like we did above, but I think it's more accurate and precise to frame it as the decisions required to move towards Ideal State.\n\nSo, returning to the present and this IPO question: I generally see us right now at the pre-punch-card AI. Like it's barely even day 0. It's like the start of day 0.\n\nAnd when you zoom out at that scale (assuming you're not trying to day trade this stuff), in that frame I see Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic as kind of like one bet. Basically US Frontier Labs.\n\nI sometimes worry OpenAI could be over the skis real bad, but I also think one big hit with a model, wearables, robots, or whatever will functionally erase its debt. And Anthropic I'm not worried about at all; the fact that they're already becoming profitable is remarkable.\n\nMost importantly, I don't so much see them as competing with each other over the course of 10 years as much as competing with Open Source / China, and potentially with ASI.\n\nSo I'm basically modeling three scenarios for the next ~10 years:\n\nIn this model, as it pertains to investing in the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs, I consider money in both Anthropic or OpenAI to likely be solid. Simply because the opportunity is so great and we're so early. And I am already in Google.\n\nI obviously have no idea which of the three above will happen, and it can also obviously also be a mix.\n\nHere are some of the swan scenarios that I think would make things interesting based on tech and timing:\n\nAnyway, didn't plan on writing all that but I'm happy with it.\n\nCame here to basically say:\n\nIf one or more of the big crazy counters above doesn't happen, I think we're so early in AI relative to the actual opportunity (Current->Ideal State Management), that I'm happy putting money into all the top 3 US Labs, because I suspect they'll all likely do well.", "url": "https://wpnews.pro/news/how-i-m-thinking-about-the-anthropic-and-openai-ipos", "canonical_source": "https://danielmiessler.com/blog/anthropic-openai-ipos?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=website", "published_at": "2026-06-01 21:27:20+00:00", "updated_at": "2026-06-25 22:39:12.986002+00:00", "lang": "en", "topics": ["artificial-intelligence", "ai-startups", "ai-products", "ai-research", "ai-policy"], "entities": ["Anthropic", "OpenAI", "Google", "China"], "alternates": {"html": "https://wpnews.pro/news/how-i-m-thinking-about-the-anthropic-and-openai-ipos", "markdown": "https://wpnews.pro/news/how-i-m-thinking-about-the-anthropic-and-openai-ipos.md", "text": "https://wpnews.pro/news/how-i-m-thinking-about-the-anthropic-and-openai-ipos.txt", "jsonld": "https://wpnews.pro/news/how-i-m-thinking-about-the-anthropic-and-openai-ipos.jsonld"}}