Getting your
Trinity Audioplayer ready...The psyche of California consumers has seemingly come to grips with a stressful start to 2026, marked by a wobbly economy, a war, and a heated governor’s race.
My trusty spreadsheet looked at the Conference Board’s California consumer confidence index, comparing the average results for the year’s first six months with those at the start of 2025, and reviewed the optimism benchmark’s history dating back to 2007.
The numbers show Golden State consumer confidence is up 1% over the past year – yet it’s 5% below the 20-year average. Considering life’s recent twists and turns – statewide, nationally and globally – that feels relatively buoyant.
Remember, Donald Trump started his second presidential term in January 2025. Let’s say his “America First” economic views don’t align well with California’s more global orientation.
Dare I mention this year’s war with Iran as another source of tension? And let’s not forget what those battles have meant to inflation, particularly what consumers spend for a gallon of gasoline.
It’s not just worldly anxieties. California leadership will see change, too. Gov. Gavin Newsom can’t run again, so a new governor will be elected in November. Bruising primary races don’t create confidence either.
And the overall economy, statewide and nationally, seems iffy – minus some curious California-centric hotspots such as artificial intelligence and defense contracting.
So, look inside the confidence index for two yardsticks that provide more insight into the thinking of California shoppers.
The overall upheaval helps explain the “present situation” index – gauging current conditions – which is down 9% over the past year. Still, it runs 3% above average, suggesting personal finances may be slightly better than we think.
The future seems curious. The “expectations” index, which measures consumer outlook, is up 13% over the past year – suggesting that Californians have somewhat adapted to Trump’s presidency and the upcoming statewide leadership change.
However, it’s not a rosy forecast. This index sits 12% below its long-run average.
Nationally speaking
The American consumer seems slightly more perplexed.
The U.S. consumer confidence index is down 5% over the past year, with the index at mid-year 2026 running 1% below its 20-year average.
The nationwide present situation measure is down 11% in a year – but it’s still 14% above average.
And American expectations have risen by 2% over the past year. And like in California, that’s pretty dour: 13% below average.
Stately sentiments
A peek at optimism across the seven other states tracked by the Conference Board reveals a slightly divided America, with some short-term worries.
Confidence indexes are down in five states in the past year.
– Ohio: Off 13% in a year but 2% above average.
– Michigan: Off 9% in a year but 12% above average.
– Texas: Off 8% in a year and 7% below average.
– Illinois: Off 4% in a year but 12% above average.
– Pennsylvania: Off 1% in a year but 5% above average.
Confidence rose in two states.
– New York: Up 6% in a year and 18% above average.
– Florida: Up 2% in a year and 13% above average.
Considering the very different swings in optimism in Texas and Florida, confidence variations clearly aren’t just about politics.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com