# Half of Bitcoin in circulation is underwater for the first time since 2022 > Source: > Published: 2026-06-16 03:56:08+00:00 # Half of the bitcoin supply in circulation is underwater for the first time since 2022 A silver lining to the statistic may be that it’s a level that has historically aligned with cycle bottoms, and that some now view the asset as cheap. Bitcoin’s [recent tumble](https://sherwood.news/crypto/is-the-ai-trade-strategy-or-macro-factors-to-blame-for-bitcoin-woes/) means that now half of the supply in circulation is sitting at a loss. Bloomberg, citing K33 Research, [reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-10/bitcoin-selloff-leaves-half-of-all-supply-trading-at-a-loss?srnd=phx-crypto) that this is the first time this has occurred since late 2022. The millions of [bitcoin](https://robinhood.com/us/en/crypto/BTC/?source=sherwood) sitting underwater underscores “the scale of the recent market reset,” Glassnode analysts [said](https://x.com/glassnode/status/2064343256389791862). Bitcoin saw a small bump on Wednesday following the CPI report, trading around $62,000, at the upper end of the tight range it’s been stuck in. Matt Mena, a senior crypto research strategist at 21shares, told Sherwood News that having 50% of bitcoin holders at a loss is a level that has historically aligned with cycle bottoms. The $55,000 support level becomes the next crucial area to watch, he said, as bitcoin has repeatedly found long-term support near realized price (around $55,000) during major drawdowns, including the late 2018 crash, the March 2020 Covid crash, and the 2022 FTX collapse. Mena said $100,000 remains the firm’s year-end target. Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, offered a silver lining to the recent pullback, telling Sherwood that, in his view, current levels for bitcoin represent an attractive entry point for longer-term investors looking to dollar-cost average into position. “Is bitcoin cheap yet? The answer — according to the signal from a range of onchain valuation indicators — is yes, but not as much as previous cyclical lows (e.g., post FTX-collapse). Whether we have hit bottom this time depends on the regulatory outlook and on how large leveraged BTC holders perform in the short run,” Pandl wrote in a [note](https://www.grayscale.com/the-stack/is-bitcoin-cheap-yet). Pandl told Sherwood, however, that there may be additional short-term downside risk if the CLARITY Act fails to pass the US Senate and/or there is further pressure on digital asset treasury balance sheets. CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno also underscored that the realized price, which he puts at $53,600, is a valuation zone where previous bear cycles have found their structure, and remains one of the most important valuation anchors in bitcoin’s on-chain framework. “Historically, bitcoin has bottomed at or marginally below the realized price in each major bear cycle,” Moreno said in a report, adding, however, that a confirmed bear market bottom or bullish reversal may still take time to develop. “Another signal pointing to the fact that a bottom could take some time is that realized losses from bitcoin holders have not reached capitulation levels,” Moreno said. “The absence of a capitulation spike suggests the market has not yet exhausted its supply of motivated sellers.” Looking ahead, some signal that bitcoin could drop below $60,000 once again, a probability HashKey senior researcher Tim Sun called “not low.” Sun cited continued US-Iran tension, which “continues to suppress any potential market rebound,” and institutional hedging. “Looking at CME options data, a dense Put Wall has already formed at $47,500. This indicates that institutional investors are aggressively buying downside protection to hedge against potential downside risks,” Sun told Sherwood.