Google DeepMind CEO and Nobel Prize-winner Demis Hassabis shortened his prediction for when the era of AGI would be upon us.
Last year, we gathered up the many predictions we were hearing from tech leaders about when we should expect AGI to arrive.
There was no shortage of opinions then, and the range of predictions was pretty wide.
Recently, Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis revised his prediction, shortening the timeframe significantly. Last June, Hassabis predicted that AGI may be achieved between 2030 - 2035. Last week, the window was narrowed to 2029-2030.
During the Google I/O conference, Hassabis said “When we look back at this time, I think we all realize that we were standing in the foothills of the singularity. It will be a profound moment for humanity.”
After the keynote, Axios’ Ina Fried spoke with Hassabis, and he said that with the acceleration of agents, we may also be faster to achieve AGI: “We can see agents really happening now and imagine what they will be in another year, and how useful they'll be.” He reportedly predicted we would have AGI by 2029 or 2030.
We also noted a newer AGI prediction from former OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever (now the CEO of Safe Superintelligence Inc). Way back in 2017, before ChatGPT came out, Sutskever predicted we would have already had AGI by 2019 or 2021. But last November, at the dawn of the agentic AI boom, Sutskever made a much wider estimate:** as soon as 2030 or up to 2045**.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang kinda made a new prediction back in March while on Lex Fridman’s podcast. He said we had already achieved AGI, but then hedged a bit. “I think it’s now. I think we’ve achieved AGI.”
We’ll keep this tracker updated. Seen one that we’ve missed? Send them our way: keegan@sherwoodmedia.com!