According to research from Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, reported by Seeking Alpha, AI infrastructure spending is projected to account for roughly 50% of S&P 500 earnings per share growth over the next two years. The report estimates Nvidia and Micron together will power about one-third of S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026, per Seeking Alpha. Goldman singles out semiconductors, tech hardware, industrial firms, and utilities as the sectors likely to benefit from the AI infrastructure buildout, while warning that higher depreciation expenses at large cloud providers will partially offset gains in the following year, according to the same reporting.
What happened
According to Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, reported by Seeking Alpha, AI infrastructure spending is projected to drive about 50% of S&P 500 earnings growth over the next two years. The research, summarized by Seeking Alpha, also estimates that Nvidia and Micron together will power roughly one-third of S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026. The report identifies semiconductors, tech hardware, industrial firms, and utilities as the sectors most likely to see earnings upside from the infrastructure buildout. The same reporting notes rising depreciation expense at large cloud computing providers will partially offset those earnings gains in the subsequent year.
Editorial analysis - technical context
Industry-pattern observations: Large waves of AI infrastructure investment typically raise demand for discrete accelerators (GPUs and similar ASICs), high-bandwidth memory, dense SSD storage, and datacenter networking. Those component demand shocks often compress supply, lift pricing, and shift OEM and contract manufacturer priorities for quarters to years. The report framing that semiconductors and hardware firms capture a disproportionate share of earnings growth aligns with these historical mechanics.
Context and significance
For practitioners: A Goldman projection that AI capex could account for half of index EPS growth highlights how infrastructure demand now materially affects public market earnings narratives, not just product roadmaps. Increased hyperscaler capex raises short term procurement pressure and longer term depreciation and opex considerations for cloud providers, which can change total-cost-of-ownership dynamics for enterprises choosing between cloud and on-premise deployments.
What to watch
Industry observers and practitioners should monitor quarterly capex guidance from major cloud providers, Nvidia and Micron revenue commentary on datacenter products, memory spot-price trends, GPU shipment and allocation updates, and announcements of new datacenter buildouts or interconnect investments. Those indicators will show whether the projected earnings contribution is tracking toward the Goldman forecast.
Scoring Rationale #
The Goldman projection links AI infrastructure spending directly to S&P 500 earnings, which matters for market-facing engineers, vendor strategy, and procurement. The piece is notable for signaling concentrated supplier upside but is not a technical model or regulatory shift, so it rates as a solid, practitioner-relevant development.
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