Gold, AI and more: Five key questions on investors’ minds for H2 2026 answered

Investors face key questions for H2 2026, including whether AI capital expenditure by hyperscalers like Amazon, Oracle, and Microsoft will boost or burden markets, and whether gold remains a reliable hedge amid supply shocks from the US-Iran war and inflation. Analysts from HSBC, Amundi, and BlackRock highlight opportunities in AI bottlenecks like chips and power, while gold's recent slump below $4,000 per ounce raises concerns despite central bank buying.

Gold, AI and more: Five key questions on investors’ minds for H2 2026 answered Asia equities still have a strong growth story due to ‘reasonable’ valuations, experts say SINGAPORE From the outbreak of war in the Middle East causing oil and energy prices to whipsaw https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/esg/energy-new-water-says-climate-ambassador-ravi-menon , to a continued artificial intelligence build-out shaping global tech stock markets, investors have had a tumultuous first half of 2026. The Business Times looks into five themes on which investors might be seeking answers in the second half of this year. 1. AI capex surge – boon or bane? AI capital expenditure is set to run up significantly in H2 this year, said analysts. Notably, hyperscalers from the US such as Amazon, Oracle and Microsoft will see capex of about US$700 billion by end-2026 https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/global/global-ai-debt-issuance-top-us500-billion-2026-morgan-stanley – and around US$800 billion by 2027, based on data from Bloomberg and Manulife Investment Management. “If AI capex remains strong and continues to be monetised, earnings can support the market and justify elevated valuations,” a mid-year global investment outlook report from HSBC indicated. But experts from Amundi Investment Institute think this boom in AI spending “is not just an equity story”. “ As winners and losers emerge https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/big-tech-earnings-show-split-between-ai-trade-winners-and-losers in the broadening of the AI supercycle , dispersion across sectors and regions will widen, making diversification essential for portfolio resilience,” they said. A BlackRock Investment Institute report noted that opportunities in bottleneck areas of the AI build-out – such as chips, power and data centres https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/wealth/wealth-investing/real-ai-bottleneck-isnt-chips-its-power – are worth watching. That said, things could also sour for various players as easily across the board. “If investors begin to question a return on that spending https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/singapore/ai-driven-growth-may-run-out-steam-energy-grids-struggle-keep-innovation , the durability of monetisation, or the availability of financing as hyperscalers hit funding and concentration limits – the market’s strongest support could become its key vulnerability,” said HSBC analysts. 2. Does gold remain a reliable hedge amid a wave of supply shocks? Gold is a popular safe-haven asset – but its market behaviour of late has caused some concern among investors https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/energy-commodities/gold-slips-oil-rally-keeps-inflation-rate-outlook-investors-radar . Its spot price declined below US$4,000 per troy ounce on Monday Jul 13 , extending its slump since June. This comes amid higher energy prices due to inflation and the continued US-Iran war, https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/global/trump-pledges-escalate-attacks-until-iran-relents-hormuz plus the increased likelihood of rate hikes weighing on the attractiveness of bullion compared with yield-bearing assets such as fixed income. However, analysts are still bullish on the yellow metal https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/energy-commodities/singapore-well-placed-be-aseans-gold-trading-hub-regional-duties-rise-analysts for the rest of the year – with those from Amundi setting a target price of US$5,000 an ounce. Gold’s current weakness does not make it “fragile”, said experts from HSBC, but demonstrates how it is a “cyclical risk asset”. “ Central banks have continued to buy gold https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/banking-finance/more-central-banks-increasing-domestic-gold-storage-diversifying-overseas-vaulting-survey , reinforcing its role as a reserve asset outside the US dollar system,” they noted in the bank’s mid-year global investment outlook. “Gold still carries an insurance value that is difficult to replicate through conventional financial assets.” Amundi’s analysts also said limited mine supply and rising global debt should support prices as investors seek diversification and a reliable store of value https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/asean/vinhomes-lets-homebuyers-pay-gold-tapping-vietnams-vast-private-hoards . 3. Is investing in Asia equities a strong play in H2? Analysts believe that a strong growth story exists in the Asia equities space https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/south-koreas-world-beating-stocks-are-now-trading-cheaper-ever due to “reasonable” valuations. This comes amid wild swings in regional markets, with a spotlight on major chip player SK Hynix’s Nasdaq debut on Jul 10 https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/sk-hynix-plunges-after-nasdaq-debut-amid-diminishing-earnings-optimism . Its share price on the exchange plunged by over 15 per cent on Monday after fierce profit-taking from investors, eroding some earnings optimism. But June Chua, head of Asia equities at Manulife Investment Management, believes South Korea as a market still has room to grow. “South Korea – despite being the strongest performer this year among Asia markets – is still the cheapest market,” she pointed out. “We also see a number of markets, including China, Indonesia, the Philippines, as well as Malaysia, trading well below their historical averages.” Singapore – within South-east Asia specifically – also remains various analysts’ preferred market as it offers investors a “defensive” position https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/singapores-equity-market-gains-raise-bar-new-ipos-ocbc . “The Equity Market Development Programme , a healthy initial public offering pipeline, strong regional flows, as well as a strengthening Singapore dollar continue to be very supportive of the market,” said Chua. OCBC equity analysts noted that the valuations of Singapore counters are in a fair range, due to strong corporate earnings of growth stocks. Blue-chip counters such as ST Engineering , Sembcorp Industries and Keppel are among those with a “buy” rating in their H2 outlook report, on top of several Singapore-listed real estate investment trusts Reits including Keppel DC Reit and CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust . 4. How would central banks pivot, and what does sticky inflation mean for fixed income? A more hawkish central bank direction could begin in H2 2026, said various analysts – though the majority believe the US Federal Reserve rates will hold https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/banking-finance/top-fed-officials-embrace-cooler-inflation-reading-clamour-more until the end of the year. This is amid global headwinds and higher energy prices with war in the Middle East continuing, where elevated core inflation is a “chief concern”, a report from Franklin Templeton on Jul 10 noted. OCBC’s wealth advisory executive director Afdhal Rahman is therefore cautious on long-dated bonds in a higher-for-longer interest-rate environment. “ This is because duration may act as a drag on portfolios more than a stabiliser,” he said in a Tuesday note. He thus favours higher-quality, shorter-duration fixed-income assets with a weighted average duration of three to seven years at this juncture. In a hawkish regime, higher yields with lower interest-rate sensitivity can be found in Asia dollar investment-grade and high-yield bonds, said Murray Collis, head of Asia fixed income at Manulife Investment Management. “The reality is that the risk premiums of investment-grade bonds , particularly in the US and Canada, are incredibly tight,” he added. He also said investors can expect “more bang for their buck” with their fixed-income assets if they look beyond North American markets and set their sights on Asia instead https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/global/emerging-asia-bonds-draw-global-funds-despite-fed-hike-fears . “The yields that we are seeing in private credit are compelling, and they are attractive.” Luke Browne, global head of multi-asset solutions at Manulife Investment Management 5. Can private markets hold their weight for the rest of 2026? Experts BT heard from are mixed on the private credit space https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/us-private-credit-risks-not-mirrored-south-east-asia-ifs-capital-ceo regarding its return potential ahead. Luke Browne, global head of multi-asset solutions at Manulife Investment Management, demonstrates a “high conviction” in private credit now. “The yields that we are seeing there are compelling, and they are attractive,” he said. However, a series of high-profile defaults in software and software-as-a-service has placed the sector under scrutiny, amid comparisons to the dotcom era and growing fears that infrastructure investments could be leapfrogged by newer technologies, a report by Man Group showed. Morningstar analysts also said that middle-market private-credit fundamentals have continued to weaken, reflecting “margin pressure, uneven revenue growth, and higher debt-servicing costs”. Man Group noted that credit quality and disciplined manager selection will remain “paramount” for the future of the asset class. As for private equity, Browne is “underweight” on the sector because of “where we are in the cycle” now and “where we are with current valuations”. He said: “We just feel a bit stretched when it comes to portfolio exits , and that there are better opportunities elsewhere in the private market.” Decoding Asia newsletter: your guide to navigating Asia in a new global order. 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