[Submitted on 29 Oct 2026]
[View PDF](http://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.40641v1)
[HTML (experimental)](https://arxiv.org/html/2610.40641v1)
Abstract:Extreme weather is forecast days ahead, yet its consequences for agriculture remain hard to predict: a forecast says where a storm will strike, not which crops will suffer or how much is at risk, and the records that could tell span many sources. We present WxCrop, the first agent that judges agricultural hazards from physically interpretable weather indices examined by causal analysis, and the first that combines weather and agricultural information to predict crop loss reliably for past and forecast dates. We demonstrate it in Florida on hurricanes, freezes and dry heat, with a loss model calibrated on insurance records for each, and the same procedure extends to other hazards and areas. Three checks show reliability: the hurricane index detects recorded cyclone days with an AUC of 0.98, recorded losses in held-out years are reproduced to within 2%, and independent production records confirm the county rankings (rank correlation 0.63). Users ask the agent for each crop group's loss as a fraction of expected season value, every number sourced, so that governments, growers and scientists respond to agricultural disasters quickly.
Current browse context:
physics.ao-ph
References & Citations
...
Bibliographic Explorer
(What is the Explorer?) Connected Papers
(What is Connected Papers?) Litmaps
(What is Litmaps?) scite Smart Citations
(What are Smart Citations?) alphaXiv
(What is alphaXiv?) CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers
(What is CatalyzeX?) DagsHub
(What is DagsHub?) Gotit.pub
(What is GotitPub?) Hugging Face
(What is Huggingface?) ScienceCast
(What is ScienceCast?) Influence Flower
(What are Influence Flowers?) CORE Recommender
(What is CORE?) arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.
Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.
Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.